[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 19 July 14 issued 2330 UT on 19 Jul 2014
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jul 20 09:30:18 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/19 JULY 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 20 JULY - 22 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** RED **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Jul: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Jul: 86/29
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
20 Jul 21 Jul 22 Jul
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 85/27 85/27 85/27
COMMENT: Solar activity stayed at very low levels during the
last 24 hours. Solar wind speed gradually decreased from 330
km/s to around 280 km/s and the Bz component of IMF stayed close
to normal value during most parts of the UT day today. No significant
variation to solar activity is expected in the next three days.
Very low levels of solar activity may be expected on 20, 21 and
22 July.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Jul: Quiet
Estimated Indices 19 Jul : A K
Australian Region 0 00010000
Cocos Island 0 10000000
Darwin 1 11100000
Townsville 1 11010001
Learmonth 0 00000000
Alice Springs 0 00000000
Norfolk Island 0 --000000
Culgoora 1 11110000
Gingin 0 00000000
Camden 0 01010000
Canberra 0 00010000
Launceston 0 00010000
Hobart 0 00010000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 19 Jul :
Macquarie Island 0 00010000
Casey 1 11110000
Mawson 4 30111012
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 Jul :
Darwin 13 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 3
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 3 2010 0111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
20 Jul 5 Quiet
21 Jul 6 Quiet
22 Jul 6 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions stayed at quiet levels today.
Nearly similar conditions may be expected on 20, 21 and 22 July.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Jul Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Jul Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
21 Jul Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
22 Jul Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: MUFs were generally depressed for most of the day, more
pronounced at low latitudes. This is due to the continued lack
of ionising EUV and X-rays from the low spot count on the solar
disc. This is likely to continue for the next few days. Minor
to mild MUF depressions may be observed on 20, 21 and 22 July.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
19 Jul 50
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
No data available during local night.
Depressed by 35% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 30% during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Depressed by 35% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 30% during local day.
Depressed by 40% during local night.
Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun 65
Jul 92
Aug 90
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
20 Jul 50 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
21 Jul 50 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
22 Jul 50 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
COMMENT: MUFs were generally depressed throughout the entire
Australasian region for most of the day, more pronounced at low
latitudes. This is due to the continued lack of ionising EUV
and X-rays from the low spot count on the solar disc. This is
likely to continue for the next few days. Minor to mild MUF depressions
may be observed on 20, 21 and 22 July.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 18 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.3E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.30E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.2
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Jul
Speed: 336 km/sec Density: 1.5 p/cc Temp: 40700 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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