[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 17 July 14 issued 2330 UT on 17 Jul 2014

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jul 18 09:30:20 EST 2014


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/17 JULY 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 18 JULY - 20 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Jul:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Jul:  89/33


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             18 Jul             19 Jul             20 Jul
Activity     Very low to low    Very low to low    Very low to low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    90/34              90/34              90/34

COMMENT: Solar flare activity was Very Low during 17 July with 
only a single B-class x-ray flare and background flux below B1 
level. Only one small diffuse spot group AR2113 is on the disc, 
and about to rotate off the limb. There are three numbered plage 
regions ARs 2114, 2116 and 2117 without spots but all are small. 
A disappearing filament was observed in the northwest quadrant 
in a potentially geoeffective position if a coronal mass ejection 
resulted but none has been observed yet in the SOHO spacecraft 
data. Conditions are likely to remain Very Low to Low for the 
next two days. Solar wind speed declined again over the UT day 
from a moderate 450km/s down to a low 360km/s. A small equatorial 
coronal hole is in a geoeffective position so a brief rise on 
solar wind speed may occur on the 18th or 19th. Interplanetary 
magnetic field north-south (IMF Bz) was in the neutral +/-5nT 
range, not conducive to strong merging with the geomagnetic field.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Jul: Quiet

Estimated Indices 17 Jul : A   K           
   Australian Region       1   11100011
      Cocos Island         1   11110010
      Darwin               2   12200011
      Townsville           1   11100011
      Learmonth            2   11200021
      Alice Springs        1   01100011
      Norfolk Island       1   11100000
      Culgoora             1   01100011
      Gingin               2   11200120
      Camden               1   11100011
      Canberra             1   01100010
      Launceston           1   01100011
      Hobart               1   01100010    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 17 Jul :
      Macquarie Island     0   00000000
      Casey                7   23310122
      Mawson              15   33211245

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 Jul : 
      Darwin              27   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             2   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              6   2221 1221     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
18 Jul     8    Quiet to Unsettled
19 Jul     8    Quiet to Unsettled
20 Jul     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were Quiet during 14 July, as 
solar wind speed was low to moderate and the interplanetary magnetic 
field north-south (IMF Bz) was in the neutral +/-5nT range, so 
merging with the geomagnetic field was weak. There are no major 
spot groups on the solar disc so coronal mass ejections are not 
expected in the next 2-3 days. An disappearing filament was observed 
in north-west solar quadrant, geoeffective if a coronal mass 
ejection was emitted, but none has been observed yet. A small 
equatorial coronal hole is rotating through the geoeffective 
longitudes, so a modest increase in solar wind speed and geomagnetic 
activity may occur across the 18th or 19th.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
17 Jul      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
18 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
19 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
20 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal


-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
17 Jul    57

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 45% during local night.
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 40% during local night.
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jun      65
Jul      92
Aug      90

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
18 Jul    75    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20%
19 Jul    70    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20%
20 Jul    70    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20%

COMMENT: MUFs were generally depressed throughout the entire 
Australasian region for most of the day, more pronounced at low 
latitudes. This is again due to the lack of ionising EUV and 
X-rays from the low spot count on the solar disc. This is likely 
to continue for the next 2-3 days. There was nighttime spread 
F observed at near-equatorial and southern latitudes latitudes,suggesting 
movement of ionisation away ('transport') from the region, as 
geomagnetic activity has been Quiet, and this has probably contributed 
to the MUF depressions.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 16 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   7.2E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.0E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.80E+05   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.7

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 Jul
Speed: 406 km/sec  Density:    2.4 p/cc  Temp:    90800 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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