[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 16 July 14 issued 2330 UT on 16 Jul 2014
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Jul 17 09:30:23 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/16 JULY 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 17 JULY - 19 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Jul: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Jul: 92/37
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
17 Jul 18 Jul 19 Jul
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 90/34 90/34 90/34
COMMENT: Solar flare activity was Very Low during 15 July with
only B-class x-ray emissions. Only one small diffuse spot group
AR2113 is on the disc. Conditions are likely to remain Very Low
to Low for the next two days. Solar wind speed declined over
the UT day from ~450km/s down to 400km/s in the low-moderate
range. Interplanetary magnetic field north-south (IMF Bz) was
mainly in the neutral +/-5nT range, not conducive to strong merging
with the geomagnetic field.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Jul: Quiet
Estimated Indices 16 Jul : A K
Australian Region 1 11101000
Cocos Island 1 11110000
Darwin 1 11101001
Townsville 3 11211011
Learmonth 2 11201000
Alice Springs 1 01101000
Norfolk Island 2 11101011
Culgoora 1 11101001
Gingin 1 11101010
Camden 1 01101000
Canberra 0 00101000
Launceston 3 11202011
Hobart 1 01102000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 16 Jul :
Macquarie Island 1 00102000
Casey 5 23211111
Mawson 11 32311243
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 Jul :
Darwin 11 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 9 3132 2222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
17 Jul 5 Quiet
18 Jul 5 Quiet
19 Jul 9 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were Quiet during 14 July, as
solar wind speed was low to moderate and the interplanetary magnetic
field north-south (IMF Bz) was mainly in the neutral +/-5nT range.
There are no major spot groups on the solar disc so, in the absence
of an erupting filament, coronal mass ejections are not expected
in the next 2-3 days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Jul Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Jul Normal Normal Normal
18 Jul Normal Normal Normal
19 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
16 Jul 71
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 45% during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun 65
Jul 92
Aug 90
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
17 Jul 75 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
18 Jul 75 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
19 Jul 70 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs were generally depressed throughout the northern
Australasian region and low latitudes during 15 July due to the
lack of ionising EUV and X-rays from the low spot count on the
solar disc. This is likely to continue for the next 2-3 days.
There was spread F observed at near-equatorial latitudes,suggesting
activity in the equatorial anomaly/fountain, probably due to
thermospheric winds, as geomagnetic activity has been Quiet.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 15 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.7E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 9.3E+03
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.7
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Jul
Speed: 447 km/sec Density: 2.1 p/cc Temp: 130000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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