[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 09 July 14 issued 2330 UT on 09 Jul 2014
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Jul 10 09:30:20 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/09 JULY 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 10 JULY - 12 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Jul: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.2 0027UT possible lower West Pacific
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Jul: 198/150
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
10 Jul 11 Jul 12 Jul
Activity Moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 190/143 180/133 170/124
COMMENT: AR 2113 was the most active region during 9 July, producing
an M1.2 X-ray flare peaking at 00:26 UT, and then another two
C class flares. AR 2104 produced a C5.0 class flare peaking at
18:39 UT. Large AR 2109 produced a single C2.2 flare peaking
at 04:09 UT. At the time of this report, none of the CMEs associated
with recent flares are expected to strongly impact the geomagnetic
field. Large AR 2108 or AR 2109 have been relatively inactive,
but may yet produce an M class flare. GONG Big Bear H alpha images
recorded the lift-off of a large filament during 15 to 17 UT,
accelerating rapidly during 17 UT. This filament was located
at approximately (S02E11) and the ejecta appeared to head east
in the H alpha images. The available SOHO LASCO and STEREO coronograms
show a strong CME heading toward the NE during 21 UT. The solar
wind speed is presently near 360 km/s. The magnitude of the IMF
is presently about 7 nT and the Bz component fluctuated mostly
in the range -5 nT to +5 nT during 9 July.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Jul: Quiet
Estimated Indices 09 Jul : A K
Australian Region 2 21110011
Cocos Island 3 21120011
Darwin 3 22100012
Townsville 4 22210012
Learmonth 4 21210112
Alice Springs 2 11100012
Norfolk Island 2 21100011
Culgoora 3 12111011
Gingin 3 21101012
Camden 2 12100011
Canberra 1 11100011
Launceston 2 11110011
Hobart 2 11110011
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 09 Jul :
Macquarie Island 0 00011000
Casey 3 22110012
Mawson 19 42321226
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 7 2111 2322
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
10 Jul 7 Quiet
11 Jul 6 Quiet
12 Jul 6 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were quiet during 9 July. Geomagnetic
conditions are expected to remain mostly quiet during the next
48 hours.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Jul Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Jul Normal Normal Normal
11 Jul Normal Normal Normal
12 Jul Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
09 Jul 94
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 45% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun 65
Jul 92
Aug 90
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
10 Jul 95 Near predicted monthly values
11 Jul 90 Near predicted monthly values
12 Jul 85 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Ionospheric propagation conditions were enhanced in
the Cocos Island region during 03-13 UT, reaching values up to
60% during 07-10 UT. Conditions were depressed by -5% to -35%
in the Darwin region for most of 9 July. Conditions were mildly
depressed by -5% to -25% in the Townsville region for most of
9 July. Conditions were near predicted monthly values or mildly
enhanced at most mid-latitude stations in the Australian region.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 08 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 Jul
Speed: 330 km/sec Density: 3.4 p/cc Temp: 49900 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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