[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 08 July 14 issued 2330 UT on 08 Jul 2014
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jul 9 09:30:37 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/08 JULY 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 09 JULY - 11 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Jul: High
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M6/2B 1620UT probable lower South American/
Atlantic
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Jul: 201/153
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
09 Jul 10 Jul 11 Jul
Activity Moderate Moderate Moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 200/152 190/143 180/133
COMMENT: AR 2113 released several C class flares during 8 July
followed by an M6.5 X-ray flare peaking at 16:20 UT. The associated
CME is not Earthward directed because AR 2113 was located in
the north east quadrant of the solar disk. AR 2108 and AR 2109
have both traversed the central meridian and are passing through
the geoeffective region. These major regions were inactive during
8 July but may produce an M class event during the next 48 hours.
GOES energetic proton fluxes have been trending upwards for the
past 3 days. The solar wind speed is presently near 350 km/s.
The magnitude of the IMF is presently about 7 nT and the Bz component
fluctuated mostly in the range -7 nT to +7 nT during 8 July.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Jul: Quiet
Estimated Indices 08 Jul : A K
Australian Region 2 11101111
Cocos Island 1 11100011
Darwin 3 11201112
Townsville 3 11102111
Learmonth 4 11212021
Alice Springs 3 11101022
Norfolk Island 2 11101011
Culgoora 3 11111111
Gingin 3 11201121
Camden 2 11101111
Canberra 2 11101011
Launceston 3 11102111
Hobart 2 10102011
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 08 Jul :
Macquarie Island 1 00002100
Casey 5 22211121
Mawson 13 22211154
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 Jul :
Darwin 4 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 6 2111 2222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
09 Jul 10 Quiet to Unsettled
10 Jul 7 Quiet
11 Jul 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were quiet during 8 July. The
arrival of faster solar wind may lead to intervals of unsettled
geomagnetic conditions during the next 24 hours.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Jul Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
10 Jul Normal Normal Normal
11 Jul Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
08 Jul 82
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun 65
Jul 92
Aug 90
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
09 Jul 85 Near predicted monthly values
10 Jul 80 Near predicted monthly values
11 Jul 80 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Ionospheric propagation support was depressed for much
of the day at the low latitude stations Cocos Island, Darwin
and Townsville. The conditions were near predicted monthly values
or slightly depressed at the midlatitude stations.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 07 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.5E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.50E+04 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B9.8
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 Jul
Speed: 286 km/sec Density: 2.8 p/cc Temp: 37300 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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