[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 10 July 14 issued 2330 UT on 10 Jul 2014

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jul 11 09:30:17 EST 2014


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/10 JULY 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 11 JULY - 13 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Jul:  Moderate

Flares: M1.5 Event peaking at 22:34 UT

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Jul: 177/131


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             11 Jul             12 Jul             13 Jul
Activity     Moderate           Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   175/129            160/114            150/105

COMMENT: Solar activity has been moderate. AR 2113 produced a 
C7.4 flare peaking at 21:13 UT on 10 July. AR 2106 produced a 
C5.7 flare peaking at 02:53 UT, and then an M1.5 flare peaking 
at 22:34 UT, the largest flare of the previous 24 hours. AR 2106 
is located near the NW limb. SOHO LASCO images for this event 
are not available at the time of this report. The partial halo 
CME associated with the large filament eruption of 9 July is 
heading NE and may glance the geomagnetic field on 13 July. GONG 
Learmonth H alpha images recorded the lift-off of a large prominence 
above AR 2104 during 04-06 UT on 10 July. AR 2104 is located 
close to the western limb. SOHO LASCO images subsequently recorded 
a bright partial halo CME heading toward the west. This CME may 
glance the geomagnetic field during 13-14 July. The solar wind 
speed is presently near 380 km/s. The magnitude of the IMF slowly 
declined from about 9 nT to 4 nT during the previous 24 hours. 
Bz has been fluctuating mostly in the range -5 nT to +5 nT.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Jul: Quiet

Estimated Indices 10 Jul : A   K           
   Australian Region       4   22201111
      Cocos Island         1   11110100
      Darwin               2   21101101
      Townsville           4   22202111
      Learmonth            4   22201111
      Alice Springs        2   21101001
      Norfolk Island       3   22201110
      Culgoora             4   22201111
      Gingin               3   22111100
      Camden               4   22201111
      Canberra             2   12201100
      Launceston           5   22212111
      Hobart               3   12211100    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 10 Jul :
      Macquarie Island     2   11212000
      Casey                4   13212100
      Mawson              13   44322213

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 Jul : 
      Darwin              11   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               4   (Quiet)
      Canberra             2   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              8   2121 1223     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
11 Jul     6    Quiet
12 Jul     5    Quiet
13 Jul     8    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions are expected to remain 
mostly quiet during the next 3 days. However, intervals 
of unsettled conditions are likely due to glancing blows 
from the recent prominence eruptions which are not 
Earthward directed.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
10 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
11 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal
12 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal
13 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair


-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
10 Jul    96

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jun      65
Jul      92
Aug      90

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
11 Jul    90    Near predicted monthly values
12 Jul    90    Near predicted monthly values
13 Jul    85    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Ionospheric propagation conditions were enhanced by 
up to 40% during the early morning hours at Australian region 
mid-latitude stations.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 09 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.5E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.10E+04   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: C1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Jul
Speed: 349 km/sec  Density:    5.3 p/cc  Temp:    61600 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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