[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 03 July 14 issued 2330 UT on 03 Jul 2014
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jul 4 09:30:17 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/03 JULY 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 04 JULY - 06 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Jul: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Jul: 178/131
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
04 Jul 05 Jul 06 Jul
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 180/133 185/138 185/138
COMMENT: Solar activity is at low levels with only a few C class
flares occurring over the last 24 hours, the greatest a C2. A
sudden increase in the IMF as measured by the ACE satellite occurred
at around 01UT with Bt increasing to up to 8nT with a prolonged
period of Bz southward of -5nT between 01-11UT before swinging
northward with Bt reducing back to less than 5nT at time of writing.
The solar wind speed and density were unchanged during this period
and remain at ambient levels.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Jul: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 03 Jul : A K
Australian Region 4 22231000
Cocos Island 3 22221000
Darwin 4 22221001
Townsville 5 22231001
Learmonth 4 22231000
Alice Springs 4 22231000
Norfolk Island 4 21230000
Culgoora - --------
Gingin 5 22231100
Camden 5 22231001
Canberra 4 22231000
Launceston 6 22241000
Hobart 6 22241000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 03 Jul :
Macquarie Island 12 11262000
Casey 4 12221101
Mawson 9 13432101
Davis - --------
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 Jul :
Darwin 6 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 4 0000 1221
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
04 Jul 5 Quiet
05 Jul 5 Quiet
06 Jul 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions were mostly quiet with an isolated
unsettled to active period in the middle of the UT day on the
3rd of July due to a sustained IMF Bz southward period. These
conditions have eased back to quiet and no subsequent disturbance
is expected over the next 3 days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Jul Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Jul Normal Normal Normal
05 Jul Normal Normal Normal
06 Jul Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
03 Jul 87
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun 65
Jul 92
Aug 90
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
04 Jul 85 Near predicted monthly values
05 Jul 90 Near predicted monthly values
06 Jul 90 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly values. Conditions
near to predicted monthly values are expected for the next 3
days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 02 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.3E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.20E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B8.9
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Jul
Speed: 306 km/sec Density: 4.1 p/cc Temp: 24700 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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