[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 02 July 14 issued 2330 UT on 02 Jul 2014

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Jul 3 09:30:18 EST 2014


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/02 JULY 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 03 JULY - 05 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Jul:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Jul: 169/123


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             03 Jul             04 Jul             05 Jul
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   175/129            180/133            180/133

COMMENT: Solar activity is at low levels with only a C1 flare. 
Region 2104(S11E29) declined over the last 24 hours but maintains 
a delta configuration and may produce M-class flares over the 
coming days, however it has been inactive to date. Region 2107(S19E37) 
is declining and is now magnetically simple. Region 2089 (N18) 
which previously produced M-flare(s) is due to return around 
3 Jul. Solar wind conditions are ambient.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Jul: Quiet

Estimated Indices 02 Jul : A   K           
   Australian Region       1   01101001
      Cocos Island         2   11210101
      Darwin               2   12101101
      Townsville           3   11102102
      Learmonth            2   01201100
      Alice Springs        1   01101000
      Norfolk Island       2   01002011
      Culgoora             0   00000---
      Gingin               1   01102000
      Camden               2   01102001
      Canberra             1   00102001
      Launceston           2   01102001
      Hobart               1   00102001    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 02 Jul :
      Macquarie Island     0   00002000
      Casey                2   02201000
      Mawson               5   12201113
      Davis                -   --------

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 Jul : 
      Darwin              13   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              4   1100 0111     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
03 Jul     5    Quiet
04 Jul     5    Quiet
05 Jul     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Magnetic conditions are quiet and no significant disturbances 
are expected over the next 3 days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
02 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
03 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal
04 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal
05 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal


-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
02 Jul    73

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jun      65
Jul      92
Aug      90

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
03 Jul    80    Near predicted monthly values
04 Jul    80    Near predicted monthly values
05 Jul    80    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly values with 
some mild depressions, particularly during local night and in 
the north of Australia. Conditions near to predicted monthly 
values are expected for the next 3 days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 01 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.5E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.0E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.90E+05   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B9.6

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Jul
Speed: 334 km/sec  Density:    2.9 p/cc  Temp:    39300 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

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