[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 01 July 14 issued 2330 UT on 01 Jul 2014
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jul 2 09:30:17 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/01 JULY 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 02 JULY - 04 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Jul: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1/-- 1123UT possible lower European
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Jul: 152/107
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
02 Jul 03 Jul 04 Jul
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 155/109 160/114 160/114
COMMENT: Solar activity is currently Moderate with an M1 flare
produced by region 2106(N15E46) and several C class flares from
regions 2104(S10E41) and 2107(S20E50). These two regions may
also produce M class flares in the coming days. A CME was observed
in possible association with the M flare however it was directed
well to the north as is unlikely to be geoeffective. Solar wind
conditions are ambient.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Jul: Quiet
Estimated Indices 01 Jul : A K
Australian Region 0 11000000
Cocos Island 1 12000000
Darwin 2 12100001
Townsville 2 12100001
Learmonth 1 11100000
Alice Springs 0 01000000
Norfolk Island 0 11000000
Culgoora 0 --000000
Gingin 0 10000000
Camden 1 11000001
Canberra 0 01000000
Launceston 2 12000020
Hobart 0 11000000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 01 Jul :
Macquarie Island 0 00000000
Casey 2 --300000
Mawson 8 32111114
Davis - --------
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 Jul :
Darwin 4 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 7 4201 1222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
02 Jul 5 Quiet
03 Jul 5 Quiet
04 Jul 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions are quiet and no significant disturbances
are expected over the next 3 days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Jul Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Jul Normal Normal Normal
03 Jul Normal Normal Normal
04 Jul Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: The ionising EUV solar flux is trending upward and the
multiday outlook is for a strengthening of ionospheric support.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
01 Jul 70
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun 65
Jul 92
Aug 90
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
02 Jul 75 Near predicted monthly values
03 Jul 80 Near predicted monthly values
04 Jul 80 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly values with
some mild depressions of around 15% at times. Similar conditions
are expected for the next 3 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 30 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.9E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B7.7
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 Jun
Speed: 354 km/sec Density: 6.6 p/cc Temp: 49000 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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