[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 04 July 14 issued 2330 UT on 04 Jul 2014
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Jul 5 09:30:27 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/04 JULY 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 05 JULY - 07 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Jul: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Jul: 188/141
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
05 Jul 06 Jul 07 Jul
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 195/147 195/147 190/143
COMMENT: Solar activity has been at low levels over the previous
24 hours with only C class flares, the greatest a C4. Several
visible sunspot regions are of significant size and complexity
but remain persistently inactive against expectations. M-class
flares are possible over the next few days. Solar wind conditions
are ambient.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Jul: Quiet
Estimated Indices 04 Jul : A K
Australian Region 2 11112001
Cocos Island 2 11112000
Darwin 3 11122001
Townsville 3 10222002
Learmonth 2 11112000
Alice Springs 2 11122000
Norfolk Island 1 00111001
Culgoora - --------
Gingin 1 11111000
Camden 3 11212001
Canberra 1 00111001
Launceston 2 10221001
Hobart 2 10211000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 04 Jul :
Macquarie Island 0 00200000
Casey 3 12221000
Mawson 11 42222114
Davis - --------
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 Jul :
Darwin 6 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8 3333 2102
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
05 Jul 5 Quiet
06 Jul 5 Quiet
07 Jul 5 Quiet
COMMENT: No magnetic disturbances are expected over the next
3 days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Jul Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Jul Normal Normal Normal
06 Jul Normal Normal Normal
07 Jul Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
04 Jul 85
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 65% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun 65
Jul 92
Aug 90
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
05 Jul 90 Near predicted monthly values
06 Jul 90 Near predicted monthly values
07 Jul 90 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly values with
depressions of up to 15% seen in northern Australia. Conditions
mostly near to predicted monthly values are expected for the
next 3 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 03 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.7E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.40E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B8.8
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Jul
Speed: 330 km/sec Density: 4.2 p/cc Temp: 34900 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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