[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 22 January 14 issued 2330 UT on 22 Jan 2014
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Jan 23 10:30:20 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/22 JANUARY 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 23 JANUARY - 25 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Jan: Low
Flares: C1.3 event at 19:05 UT from AR 1955.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Jan: 143/97
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
23 Jan 24 Jan 25 Jan
Activity Low Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts None expected Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 140/94 140/94 135/89
COMMENT: Solar activity was very quiet to quiet during 22 Jan
UT. AR 1955 produced the largest solar X-ray flare, a C1.3 event
peaking at 19:05 UT. Solar activity is expected to remain at
the C-class level with a chance of an M-class flare during the
next 3 days. The SOHO LASCO coronographs recorded a partial halo
CME leaving the solar limb toward the east and south east commencing
during 22 UT on 22 Jan. STEREO spacecraft observations imply
this was a none geoeffective far side event. During
22 Jan, the magnitude of the IMF declined back to about 7 nT
and the Bz component fluctuated between -5 nT and +5 nT (neutral).
The fast solar wind flow peaked at just over 600 km/s during
07 UT and has been gradually declining. At the time of this report,
the solar wind speed is fluctuating near about 475 km/s. The
edge of a partial halo CME launched during 22 UT on 20 Jan may
arrive today (23 Sep). The bulk of this CME was launched toward
the east and its terrestrial impact is expected to be modest.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Jan: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 22 Jan : A K
Australian Region 7 12223122
Cocos Island 4 -2222110
Darwin 6 12223112
Townsville 9 12223133
Learmonth 7 22223212
Alice Springs 6 12223112
Norfolk Island 6 22222022
Culgoora 8 12223123
Gingin 7 22232112
Camden 8 12223123
Canberra 7 12223023
Launceston 11 23333123
Hobart 10 23333122
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 22 Jan :
Macquarie Island 12 22344112
Casey 28 56523223
Mawson 18 34333225
Davis 19 34444223
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 Jan :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 6 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 9
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6 2021 2222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
23 Jan 10 Quiet to Unsettled
24 Jan 6 Quiet
25 Jan 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were quiet to unsettled during
22 Jan UT. The fast coronal hole flows arriving at Earth are
declining and the edge of a CME launched during 22 UT on 20 Jan
may arrive today. Further unsettled intervals are likely today,
23 Jan.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Jan Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
24 Jan Normal Normal Normal
25 Jan Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
22 Jan 108
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec 130
Jan 73
Feb 71
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
23 Jan 115 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
24 Jan 120 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
25 Jan 115 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: The ionospheric propagation support softened throughout
the Australian region during 22 Jan UT. The strongly enhanced
conditions which occurred at the east coast stations Brisbane,
Sydney, Canberra and Hobart during 21 Jan UT returned to near
monthly predicted values during 22 Jan UT. However, the west
coast stations Perth and Learmonth recorded strongly enhanced
conditions (T=150). There may have been a westward migration
of the strong enhancement during 21-22 Jan. The ionospheric
support at Australian Antarctic stations collapsed to below
monthly predicted values during 22 Jan, possibly due to polar
geomagnetic activity. The ionospheric propagation support at
Darwin was exceptional (local T=170), with enhancements up to
76% during the night.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 21 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.6E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.90E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B5.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Jan
Speed: 346 km/sec Density: 6.9 p/cc Temp: 51700 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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