[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 21 January 14 issued 2330 UT on 21 Jan 2014
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jan 22 10:30:17 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/21 JANUARY 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 22 JANUARY - 24 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Jan: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Jan: 146/100
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
22 Jan 23 Jan 24 Jan
Activity Low Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts None expected Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 140/94 140/94 140/94
COMMENT: Active Region 1963 located near the eastern limb produced
a long duration C3.6 class solar flare peaking at 22:49 UT on
20 Sep. The SOHO LASCO coronographs recorded a halo CME leaving
the east limb during 22 UT. The WSA-Enlil model is predicting
the arrival of the edge of this CME at Earth on 23 Sep UT. The
strongest solar flare during 21 Jan was a C2.9 event peaking
at 17:18 UT. SOHO LASCO coronographs recorded a series of at
least three CMEs leaving the western limb throughout 21 Jan.
These CMEs are not Earthward directed. Mostly C class solar flares
are expected today but there is a good chance of an M class solar
flare during the next 3 days. The solar wind speed was in the
range 300-350 km/s during the first half of 21 Jan. It began
steadily rising from 12 UT and is presently greater than 450
km/s and approaching 500 km/s. The IMF magnitude was enhanced
during 21 Jan, peaking at 13 nT and the Bz component has been
fluctuating between -8 nT and +5 nT.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Jan: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 21 Jan : A K
Australian Region 9 22223223
Cocos Island 8 22222322
Darwin 10 22223323
Townsville 11 22223333
Learmonth 12 32223333
Alice Springs 9 22223223
Norfolk Island 6 21222222
Culgoora 7 222222--
Gingin 8 31223222
Camden 9 22222233
Canberra 8 22222223
Launceston 12 22323333
Hobart 10 22322233
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 21 Jan :
Macquarie Island 8 21133222
Casey 23 46433222
Mawson 19 52333343
Davis 14 33343322
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 Jan :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 3 0011 0111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
22 Jan 8 Quiet to Unsettled
23 Jan 14 Unsettled to Active
24 Jan 6 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were quiet to unsettled during
21 Jan UT. The arrival of coronal hole flows may sustain further
intervals of unsettled geomagnetic conditions during 22 Jan UT.
A minor geomagnetic storm is possible during 23-24 Jan due to
the arrival of the edge of a CME launched from AR 1963 during
22 UT on 20 Jan.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Jan Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
23 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
24 Jan Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
21 Jan 118
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec 130
Jan 73
Feb 71
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
22 Jan 110 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
23 Jan 115 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
24 Jan 115 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Ionospheric propagation support was enhanced to strongly
enhanced throughout the Australian region during 21 Jan UT. Conditions
were enhanced at Niue, Norfolk Island, Learmonth and Perth, and
strongly enhanced at Darwin, Brisbane, Sydney, Canberra and Hobart.
The T indices for Australian Antarctic stations fell under 200.
Although ionospheric support is expected to soften today, the
multiday outlook is for enhanced to strongly enhanced conditions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 20 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.0E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.6
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 Jan
Speed: 295 km/sec Density: 2.7 p/cc Temp: 28900 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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