[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 20 January 14 issued 2330 UT on 20 Jan 2014

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Jan 21 10:30:18 EST 2014


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/20 JANUARY 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 21 JANUARY - 23 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Jan:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Jan: 137/91


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             21 Jan             22 Jan             23 Jan
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   135/89             135/89             135/89

COMMENT: Solar activity was low during 20 Jan UT. AR 1959 located 
in the SE quadrant produced C class flares, the strongest being 
a C3.4 event at 02:20 UT. Another C-class flare is in progress 
at the time of this report. Solar activity is expected to remain 
low during the next 48 hours, with a chance of an M class flare. 
A partial halo CME launched at 15 UT toward the NE and E is not 
Earthward directed. The solar wind speed was mostly in the range 
280 to 300 km/s until 17 UT when it increased to about 330 km/s. 
The solar wind speed is presently trending toward 350 km/s. The 
large coronal hole (CH 600) located in the NW quadrant is too 
far north to produce especially strong flows at Earth. The IMF 
Bz component was mostly in the range -4 nT to +3 nT.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Jan: Quiet

Estimated Indices 20 Jan : A   K           
   Australian Region       3   11111111
      Cocos Island         1   02100100
      Darwin               2   11101012
      Townsville           3   11111022
      Learmonth            2   10111111
      Alice Springs        2   10101012
      Norfolk Island       1   10101011
      Culgoora             6   11-3--12
      Gingin               3   11112210
      Camden               3   11111111
      Canberra             2   01111111
      Launceston           4   01212112
      Hobart               2   01111111    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 20 Jan :
      Macquarie Island     0   00100000
      Casey               11   24422112
      Mawson               4   11112121
      Davis                4   01222211

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 Jan : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              4                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              1   0000 1100     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
21 Jan     8    Quiet to Unsettled
22 Jan     4    Quiet
23 Jan     4    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were quiet in the Australian 
region during 20 Jan UT. Enhanced solar wind flows may lead to 
unsettled periods during 21 Jan UT.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
20 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
21 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal
22 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal
23 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal


-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
20 Jan   134

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available during local day.
      No data available during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 55% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Dec      130
Jan      73
Feb      71

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
21 Jan   130    Enhanced by 10-40% above predicted monthly values
22 Jan   125    Enhanced by 10-30% above predicted monthly values
23 Jan   120    Enhanced by 10-30% above predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Ionospheric propagation support was enhanced to strongly 
enhanced throughout the Australian region during 20 Jan UT. Conditions 
near Darwin were enhanced by 20-70% for most of the UT day. Midlatitude 
stations were enhanced by 20-40% for most of the day. The T indices 
for Australian Antarctic stations exceeded 200. The ionospheric 
propagation support is expect to remain enhanced to strongly 
enhanced during the next 3 days.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 19 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   7.2E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B4.3

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Jan
Speed: 290 km/sec  Density:    2.2 p/cc  Temp:    18000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
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