[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 19 January 14 issued 2330 UT on 19 Jan 2014
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Jan 20 10:30:16 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/19 JANUARY 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 20 JANUARY - 22 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Jan: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Jan: 128/81
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
20 Jan 21 Jan 22 Jan
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 130/84 130/84 130/84
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low during the UT day, 19 January.
Expect solar activity to remain Low today, 20 January. The largest
flare of the period was a C2.7-class flare occurring at 0658UT
from active region 1959(S26E57). The solar wind speed decreased
from 325 to 280 km/s over the past 24 hours. The IMF Bz component
has remained in the range +4/-2nT.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Jan: Quiet
Estimated Indices 19 Jan : A K
Australian Region 0 11000000
Cocos Island 0 11000000
Darwin 2 21000011
Townsville 2 21100010
Learmonth 1 11000001
Alice Springs 1 11000001
Norfolk Island 1 11000001
Culgoora 0 10000000
Gingin 2 21100101
Camden 1 110000--
Canberra 0 00000000
Launceston 1 11100000
Hobart 0 00100000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 19 Jan :
Macquarie Island 0 00000000
Casey 5 23311100
Mawson 2 21100111
Davis 4 12211201
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 2
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 1 0000 0011
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
20 Jan 4 Quiet
21 Jan 9 Quiet to Unsettled
22 Jan 6 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian region during
the UT day, 19 January were Quiet. Conditions in the Antarctic
region were mostly Quiet. Expect similar conditions today, 20
January.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Jan Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Jan Normal Normal Normal
21 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
22 Jan Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
19 Jan 119
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec 130
Jan 73
Feb 71
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
20 Jan 110 Near to 10-20% above predicted monthly values
21 Jan 110 Near to 10-20% above predicted monthly values
22 Jan 110 Near to 10-20% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs were near predicted values to enhanced across the
Aus/NZ region over the last 24 hours. Similar conditions are
expected for the next 3 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 18 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.9
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Jan
Speed: 320 km/sec Density: 1.6 p/cc Temp: 25900 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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