[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 23 January 14 issued 2330 UT on 23 Jan 2014
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jan 24 10:30:17 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/23 JANUARY 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 24 JANUARY - 26 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 Jan: Very low
Flares: B class X-ray flares.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 Jan: 136/90
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
24 Jan 25 Jan 26 Jan
Activity Very low to low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 135/89 130/84 130/84
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low during 23 Jan UT. There
were only B-class solar X-ray flares. C-class flares are possible
today and there is a small chance of an M-class flare during
the next three days. SOHO LASCO coronographs recorded a bright
CME leaving the solar limb toward the north east commencing during
20 UT on 22 Jan. This event will not be geoeffective. The IMF
Bz component fluctuated between -5 nT and +6 nT up until 07 UT
on 23 Jan. It has since been varying in the range -3 nT to +3
nT. The solar wind speed was mostly in the range 400-500 km/s
and is presently about 380 km/s and trending downward.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 Jan: Quiet
Estimated Indices 23 Jan : A K
Australian Region 4 22211111
Cocos Island 3 22210011
Darwin 4 22211111
Townsville 4 22211111
Learmonth 5 22211211
Alice Springs 4 22211111
Norfolk Island 2 21210010
Culgoora 4 22211111
Gingin 5 31211121
Camden 4 22211111
Canberra 3 22211001
Launceston 6 22321112
Hobart 4 22211111
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 23 Jan :
Macquarie Island 2 22110000
Casey 17 45432122
Mawson 13 43322233
Davis 13 33332142
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8 1133 2112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
24 Jan 5 Quiet
25 Jan 4 Quiet
26 Jan 4 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were quiet during 22 Jan UT.
Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be quiet during the next
48 hours.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Jan Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Jan Normal Normal Normal
25 Jan Normal Normal Normal
26 Jan Normal Normal Normal
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
23 Jan 124
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec 130
Jan 73
Feb 71
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
24 Jan 130 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
25 Jan 125 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
26 Jan 120 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: The ionospheric propagation support was enhanced to
strongly enhanced throughout the Australian region during 23
Jan UT. The propagation conditions were exceptional near Darwin
(T=152) and Perth (T=148) for most of the day. Enhanced to strongly
enhanced conditions are expected to continue throughout the Australian
region.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 22 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.8
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 Jan
Speed: 514 km/sec Density: 0.9 p/cc Temp: 310000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of IPS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list