[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 15 January 14 issued 2330 UT on 15 Jan 2014
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Jan 16 10:30:19 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/15 JANUARY 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 16 JANUARY - 18 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Jan: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Jan: 126/79
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
16 Jan 17 Jan 18 Jan
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 125/78 130/84 130/84
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low during the last UT day,
15 January. Expect solar activity to remain Very Low to Low today,
16 January. The solar wind speed has gradually declined from
620 and 420 km/s over the last 24 hours and the IMF Bz component
has remained in the range +/-2nT.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Jan: Quiet
Estimated Indices 15 Jan : A K
Australian Region 2 22000111
Darwin 2 21000011
Townsville 2 21000111
Learmonth 2 22000101
Alice Springs 2 21100101
Culgoora 2 12100111
Gingin 2 21000111
Camden 4 22111111
Canberra 1 11000101
Launceston 4 22111211
Hobart 3 22010111
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 15 Jan :
Macquarie Island 1 11010000
Casey 15 45421211
Mawson 9 32212233
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8 3111 3312
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
16 Jan 4 Quiet
17 Jan 10 Quiet to Unsettled
18 Jan 6 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian region during
the UT day, 15 January were Quiet. Conditions in the Antarctic
region were mostly Unsettled to Quiet during the UT day. Expect
geomagnetic conditions to remain mostly quiet today and early
tomorrow. However, midway through the UT day, 17 January there
may be a glancing blow from a CME which occurred on the 14th
which may disturb the Earth's magnetic field to Unsettled levels
with isolated cases of active levels at high latitudes. Note,
the majority of the mass of particles should pass northward of
Earth.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Jan Normal Normal Normal-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Jan Normal Normal Normal
17 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
18 Jan Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
15 Jan 111
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 50% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec 130
Jan 73
Feb 71
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
16 Jan 110 Near to 10-20% above predicted monthly values
17 Jan 100 Near to 10% above predicted monthly values
18 Jan 80 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs were near predicted values to enhanced across the
Aus/NZ region over the last 24 hours. Similar conditions are
expected for the next 3 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 14 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.7E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 3.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.90E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B7.7
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Jan
Speed: 638 km/sec Density: 1.4 p/cc Temp: 158000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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