[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 14 January 14 issued 2330 UT on 14 Jan 2014
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jan 15 10:30:18 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/14 JANUARY 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 15 JANUARY - 17 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Jan: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1/-- 13/2151UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Jan: 137/91
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
15 Jan 16 Jan 17 Jan
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 135/89 135/89 140/94
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low during the last 24 hours. Expect
solar activity to remain Low with a slight chance of a M-class
flare from active region 1953 (S18W25). Active region 1944 has
rotated around the solar disc. The solar wind speed ranged between
700 and 600 km/s over the last 24 hours and is presently declining
as the coronal hole rotates westward around the limb to the farside
of the Sun. The IMF Bz component has remained in the range +/-5nT
during the UT day.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Jan: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 14 Jan : A K
Australian Region 8 32313112
Darwin 7 32113112
Townsville 10 33313212
Learmonth 10 42223222
Alice Springs 7 32213112
Culgoora 8 32313112
Gingin 11 42313222
Camden 7 -2313112
Canberra 8 32313112
Launceston 10 32-23223
Hobart 8 32313112
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 14 Jan :
Macquarie Island 9 32214211
Casey 34 46643333
Mawson 29 55434344
Davis 25 54434334
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 Jan :
Darwin 4 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 11
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 4 2210 1001
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
15 Jan 6 Quiet
16 Jan 4 Quiet
17 Jan 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian region over
the last 24 hours were mostly Unsettled to Quiet. Conditions
in the Antarctic region reached Active to Minor storm levels
at times early in the UT day. These conditions are due to an
elevated solar wind speed. Expect conditions to gradually return
to Quiet conditions today as the high speed solar wind stream
returns to normal levels.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Jan Normal Normal Normal-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Jan Normal Normal Normal
16 Jan Normal Normal Normal
17 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
14 Jan 122
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec 130
Jan 73
Feb 71
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
15 Jan 110 Near to 10-20% above predicted monthly values
16 Jan 100 Near to 10-20% above predicted monthly values
17 Jan 100 Near to 10% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs were near predicted values to enhanced across the
Aus/NZ region over the last 24 hours. Similar conditions are
expected for the next 3 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 13 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.3E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+05
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.20E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B6.2
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Jan
Speed: 759 km/sec Density: 0.7 p/cc Temp: 735000 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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