[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 16 January 14 issued 2330 UT on 16 Jan 2014
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jan 17 10:30:28 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/16 JANUARY 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 17 JANUARY - 19 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Jan: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Jan: 121/73
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
17 Jan 18 Jan 19 Jan
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 120/72 118/70 115/66
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low during the UT day, 16 January.
Expect solar activity to remain Very Low to Low today, 17 January.
The largest flare of the period was a C6.2-class flare occurring
at 2139UT. The solar wind speed has gradually declined from 440
and 375 km/s over the last 24 hours and the IMF Bz component
has remained in the range +/-2nT.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Jan: Quiet
Estimated Indices 16 Jan : A K
Australian Region 1 11110001
Cocos Island 2 12110000
Darwin 1 20000011
Townsville 2 11110012
Learmonth 2 12101001
Alice Springs 1 20100001
Norfolk Island 2 10110012
Culgoora 1 11110001
Gingin 2 12101001
Camden 1 11110001
Canberra 1 01110001
Launceston 3 11211011
Hobart 2 01211001
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 16 Jan :
Macquarie Island 0 00110000
Casey 10 24421111
Mawson 5 22211112
Davis 6 32311111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 3
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 2 1101 0100
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
17 Jan 10 Quiet to Unsettled
18 Jan 6 Quiet
19 Jan 6 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian region during
the UT day, 16 January were Quiet. Conditions in the Antarctic
region were mostly Quiet. Expect an increase in activity midway
through the UT day, 17 January due to glancing blow from a CME
which occurred on the 14th. Thus, expect Unsettle conditions
at low and mid latitudes with isolated cases of Active to Minor
storm levels at higher latitudes later in the UT day. Note, the
majority of the mass of particles should pass northward of Earth.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Jan Normal Normal Normal-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
18 Jan Normal Normal Normal
19 Jan Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
16 Jan 125
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec 130
Jan 73
Feb 71
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
17 Jan 120 Near to 10-20% above predicted monthly values
18 Jan 100 Near to 10% above predicted monthly values
19 Jan 110 Near to 10-20% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs were near predicted values to enhanced across the
Aus/NZ region over the last 24 hours. Similar conditions are
expected for the next 3 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 15 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B5.6
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Jan
Speed: 491 km/sec Density: 0.9 p/cc Temp: 72200 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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