[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 08 January 14 issued 2330 UT on 08 Jan 2014
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Jan 9 10:30:27 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/08 JANUARY 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 09 JANUARY - 11 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** RED ** ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Jan: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M3.6 0347UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Jan: 195/147
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
09 Jan 10 Jan 11 Jan
Activity Moderate Moderate Moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 195/147 195/147 195/147
COMMENT: Solar activity was moderate over the last 24 hours,
with an M3 flare from region 1947 on the west limb. C-class flares
were produced by regions 1944 and 1947. Neither of the two CMEs
observed are expected to be geoeffective. Proton flux at geosynchronous
orbit is currently over 800 pfu for protons greater than 10 MeV.
Solar activity over the next 3 days is expected to be moderate,
with a chance of isolated X-class flares. The solar wind hovered
around 350 km/s during the UT day, while the IMF BZ component
was mostly neutral, with some brief excursions below -5nT.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Jan: Quiet
Estimated Indices 08 Jan : A K
Australian Region 5 22112112
Darwin 4 22111112
Townsville 5 21112122
Learmonth 5 22111122
Alice Springs 3 11101112
Culgoora 4 12111112
Gingin 5 22112022
Camden 5 22112112
Canberra 4 12111112
Launceston 5 22112112
Hobart 5 22112112
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 08 Jan :
Macquarie Island 3 13001011
Casey 14 34432123
Mawson 12 44222123
Davis 13 33333223
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 Jan :
Darwin 4 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth NA
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 6 0200 0332
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
09 Jan 60 Storm Levels
10 Jan 30 Active to Minor Storm
11 Jan 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 1 was issued on 8 January and
is current for 9-10 Jan. Geomagnetic activity was quiet over
the last 24 hours in the Australian region. Unsettled to active
conditions were observed in the Antarctic region in the first
half of the UT day. Conditions are likely to reach storm levels
after the expected arrival of a CME (observed 7-Jan) midway through
9-Jan.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Jan Normal Normal Poor(PCA)
PCA Event : 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began 06 01 2014 2000UT and is in progress
and, 100MeV Proton/PCA Event Began at 2015UT 07/01, Ended at 1215UT 08/01
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Jan Normal Normal Poor(PCA)
10 Jan Normal-fair Normal-fair Poor(PCA)
11 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Periods of degraded HF conditions are likely on 10-Jan,
due to an expected increase in geomagnetic activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
08 Jan 140
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec 130
Jan 73
Feb 71
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
09 Jan 130 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
10 Jan 80 Near predicted monthly values
11 Jan 100 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS SWF HF Communications Warning 1 was issued on 6
January and is current for 7-9 Jan. IPS Preliminary HF Communications
Warning 2 was issued on 8 January and is current for 10 Jan only.
MUFs were moderately enhanced across the Aus/NZ region over the
last 24 hours. Some sporadic-E was observed 16-19 UT at mid latitudes.
Depressed periods are likely on 10-Jan, especially at high latitudes,
due to an expected increase in geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 07 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.1E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.6E+06
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.10E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B9.6
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 Jan
Speed: 360 km/sec Density: 2.8 p/cc Temp: 39000 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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