[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 07 January 14 issued 2337 UT on 07 Jan 2014
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jan 8 10:37:07 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/07 JANUARY 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 08 JANUARY - 10 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:** RED ** ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Jan: High
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.0 0353UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
M7.2 1013UT probable lower European
X1.2 1832UT probable all East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Jan: 237/187
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
08 Jan 09 Jan 10 Jan
Activity Moderate to high Moderate to high Moderate to high
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 195/147 195/147 190/143
COMMENT: Solar activity was high over the last 24 hours, with
region 1944 (S09E01) producing an M7 flare at 07/1013 and an
X1 flare at 07/1832. A CME associated with the X1 flare is likely
to impact the Earth late on 9-Jan. Protons greater than 10 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit are currently over 100 pfu. Solar activity
is expected to be moderate to high for the next 3 days. A moderate
shock was observed in the solar wind at 1425UT on 07 Jan, most
likely due to the arrival of the CME observed on 4-Jan. With
the shock, the solar wind speed stepped up to ~420km/s. Since
then it has since gradually declined to ~375 km/s, while the
IMF Bz component has remained mostly negative, to -5nT. Further
disturbance in the solar wind is expected with the arrival late
on 9-Jan of the CME observed on 7-Jan.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Jan: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 07 Jan : A K
Australian Region 6 11112322
Darwin 5 11102322
Townsville 7 121024--
Learmonth 8 21022422
Alice Springs 6 21102322
Culgoora 6 12102322
Gingin 6 11012332
Camden 6 21112322
Canberra 5 11102322
Launceston 7 2-112322
Hobart 6 11112322
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 07 Jan :
Macquarie Island 4 11000322
Casey 13 34322323
Mawson 14 34212334
Davis 14 33333332
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 14
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 3 0010 0121
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
08 Jan 12 Unsettled
09 Jan 8 Quiet to Unsettled
10 Jan 25 Active
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions over the last 24 hours were mostly
quiet to unsettled, with a brief active period following a weak
(13nT) impulse observed at 1514UT, most likely due to the arrival
of the CME observed on 4-Jan. Conditions are expected likely
to remain unsettled during 8-Jan if the IMF BZ component remains
negative. Quieter conditions are likely for 9-Jan, with activity
increasing into 10-Jan with the expected arrival on the CME observed
on 7-Jan.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Jan Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began 06 01 2014 2000UT and is in progress
and, 100MeV Proton/PCA Event Began at 0820UT 06/01, Ended at 1710UT 06/01
and, 100MeV Proton/PCA Event Began 08 01 2014 0715UT and is in progress
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Jan Normal Normal Normal
09 Jan Normal Normal Normal
10 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Some periods of degraded HF conditions are expected
at high latitudes on 10 Jan due to a likely increase in geomagnetic
activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
07 Jan 135
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec 130
Jan 73
Feb 71
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
08 Jan 120 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
09 Jan 120 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
10 Jan 100 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS SWF HF Communications Warning 1 was issued on 6
January and is current for 7-9 Jan. Near predicted monthly values
to moderately enhanced MUFs were observed over the last 24 hours
in the Aus/NZ region. MUFs are expected to remain at or above
predicted monthly values for the next 3 days, with some MUF depressions
at high latitudes on 10-Jan due to an expected increase in geomagnetic
activity. Short wave fadeouts are possible for the next 3 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 06 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.4E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+06
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.90E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Jan
Speed: 368 km/sec Density: 2.1 p/cc Temp: 42600 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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