[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 04 January 14 issued 2330 UT on 04 Jan 2014
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jan 5 10:30:17 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/04 JANUARY 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 05 JANUARY - 07 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Jan: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M4/-- 1946UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Fadeout also observed at 2252UT due to M-flare in East Pacific/North American
regions.
Another fadeout in progress at the time of writing this report in East
Pacific/North American regions.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Jan: 215/165
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
05 Jan 06 Jan 07 Jan
Activity Moderate Moderate Moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 215/165 220/170 220/170
COMMENT: Moderate levels of solar activity were observed during
the last 24 hours. Several C-class and three M-class flares were
observed, the largest being an M4.1 flare that peaked at 1946UT.
Another flare, an M1.3 peaked at 1025UT. Most flares came from
or around the region 1944, which is the biggest region on the
visible solar disk. A CME seems to have been associated with
the M4 flare, but more imagery needs to be available and analysed
before taking any further conclusions about it. The X-rays flux
has again gone above the M-levels and one more M-flare is heading
towards the peak while this report is being written. As anticipated,
the solar wind stream showed further weakening as the coronal
hole moves out of geoeffective location. The solar wind speed
gradually decreased from 520 to 470 km/s over the UT day today.
The Bz component of IMF mostly varied between +/-5 nT. Solar
wind stream is expected to further weaken over the next 24 hours
as the effect of the coronal hole is expected to further decline
during this time. Moderate levels of solar activity may be expected
for the next 3 days with some possibility of isolated X-class
activity.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Jan: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 04 Jan : A K
Australian Region 7 22232112
Darwin 5 22122112
Townsville 7 22232122
Learmonth 6 22222212
Alice Springs 4 11122111
Culgoora 5 12122122
Gingin 6 21232112
Camden 7 22232122
Canberra 3 11122011
Launceston 7 22232122
Hobart 7 22232112
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 04 Jan :
Macquarie Island 7 11143011
Casey 18 35433232
Mawson 14 23333342
Davis 24 23444354
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 Jan :
Darwin 8 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 16 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8 1222 2331
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
05 Jan 5 Quiet
06 Jan 4 Quiet
07 Jan 4 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity mostly varied from quiet to unsettled
levels today. Quiet levels of geomagnetic activity are expected
for the next three days (5 to 7 January).
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Jan Normal Normal Normal
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Jan Normal Normal Normal
06 Jan Normal Normal Normal
07 Jan Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed over the last
24 hours with short wave fadeouts late during the UT day because
of M-class flares. Periods of presence of sporadic E layers were
also observed. HF conditions are expected to be mostly normal
over the next 3 days (5 to 7 January) with the possibility of
short wave fadeouts.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
04 Jan 124
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec 130
Jan 73
Feb 71
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
05 Jan 130 Near to 20% above predicted monthly values
06 Jan 135 Near to 25% above predicted monthly values
07 Jan 135 Near to 25% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed over the last
24 hours in the Aus/NZ region with short wave fadeouts late during
the UT day because of M-class flares. Periods of presence of
sporadic E layers were also observed. HF conditions are expected
to be mostly normal over the next 3 days (5 to 7 January) with
the possibility of short wave fadeouts.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 03 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.50E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.2
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Jan
Speed: 527 km/sec Density: 2.2 p/cc Temp: 149000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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