[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 03 January 14 issued 2330 UT on 03 Jan 2014

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Jan 4 10:30:15 EST 2014


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/03 JANUARY 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 04 JANUARY - 06 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Jan:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
 M1/-- 02/2218UT  possible   lower  East Pacific/
                                    North American

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Jan: 182/135


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             04 Jan             05 Jan             06 Jan
Activity     Moderate           Moderate           Moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   185/138            185/138            190/143

COMMENT: Moderate levels of solar activity were observed during 
the last 24 hours. Several C-class and one M1.1 flares were observed. 
This M1 flare peaked at 2114UT and came from region 1944. This 
region produced most of the flares today. The same region also 
produced an M1.2 event late yesterday which peaked at 2218UT 
on 02 January. This event could not be included in yesterday's 
report due to the late timing of the event. As anticipated, the 
solar wind stream showed weakening as the coronal hole moves 
out of geoeffective location. The solar wind speed gradually 
decreased from 600 to below 500 km/s over the UT day today. The 
Bz component of IMF mostly varied between +4/-6nT, staying southwards 
for relatively longer periods of time during this period. Solar 
wind stream is expected to further weaken over the next 24 hours 
as the effect of the coronal hole is expected to further decline 
during this time. Moderate levels of solar activity may be expected 
for the next 3 days with some possibility of isolated X-class 
activity.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Jan: Mostly Quiet 
to Unsettled with isolated Active periods at some high latitude 
locations

Estimated Indices 03 Jan : A   K           
   Australian Region       7   22232221
      Darwin               8   22232222
      Townsville           8   22232222
      Learmonth            8   22232222
      Alice Springs        7   22232221
      Culgoora             6   22222211
      Gingin               7   21232221
      Camden               6   22222221
      Canberra             5   22221211
      Launceston          10   23332222
      Hobart               7   22232221    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 03 Jan :
      Macquarie Island    16   22354321
      Casey               29   56543222
      Mawson              25   32444362
      Davis               23   34544341

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 Jan : 
      Darwin               2   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        15
           Planetary             18   3432 3353     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
04 Jan     8    Quiet to Unsettled
05 Jan     5    Quiet
06 Jan     4    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity varied from quiet to unsettled 
levels today with isolated active periods recorded on some high 
latitude locations. Geomagnetic activity is expected to gradually 
decline from unsettled to quiet levels over the next 24 hours 
(4 January) and then stay at quiet levels for the following 2 
days (5 and 6 January) thereafter.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
03 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began 29 12 2013 1905UT and is in progress

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
04 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal
05 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal
06 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed over the last 
24 hours with short wave fadeouts late during the UT day. Periods 
of sporadic E were also observed. HF conditions are expected 
to gradually improve over the next 24 hours (4 January) as the 
geomagnetic activity is expected to gradually decline over this 
period. Normal HF conditions may be expected on 5 and 6 January.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
03 Jan   109

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available during local day.
      No data available during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Dec      130
Jan      73
Feb      71

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
04 Jan   125    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
05 Jan   130    Near to 20% above predicted monthly values
06 Jan   135    Near to 20% above predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed over the last 
24 hours in the Aus/NZ region with short wave fadeouts late during 
the UT day. Periods of sporadic E were also observed. HF conditions 
are expected to gradually improve over the next 24 hours (4 January) 
as the geomagnetic activity is expected to gradually decline 
over this period. Normal HF conditions may be expected on 5 and 
6 January.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 02 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   7.0E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.0E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.30E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: C1.5

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Jan
Speed: 563 km/sec  Density:    3.8 p/cc  Temp:   217000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
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