[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 02 January 14 issued 2330 UT on 02 Jan 2014
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jan 3 10:30:18 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/02 JANUARY 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 03 JANUARY - 05 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Jan: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.7 0234UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Jan: 161/115
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan
Activity Moderate Moderate Moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 165/119 170/124 170/124
COMMENT: Moderate levels of solar activity were observed during
the last 24 hours. Several C-class and one M1.7 flares were observed.
This M1 flare peaked at 0233UT and came from region 1944(S08E64).
The CME associated with yesterday's M9.9 flare is not expected
to be geoeffective. Another slow CME from the region 1936 that
was observed in association with M6 flare (2158UT/31December)
may have some impact on the earth around 5 January. As anticipated,
the solar wind stream remained strong today. The solar wind speed
further increased from 550 to over 630 km/s due to the continued
effect of a coronal hole during this period. The Bz component
of IMF mostly varied between +/-6nT, staying southwards for relatively
longer periods of time. Solar wind stream is expected to gradually
weaken over the next 2 days (3 and 4 January) as the effect of
the coronal hole is expected to decline through these days. The
effect of a previously observed CME may again give some strength
to the solar wind stream on 5 January. Moderate levels of solar
activity may be expected for the next 3 days with some possibility
of isolated X-class activity.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Jan: Quiet to Minor
Storm
Estimated Indices 02 Jan : A K
Australian Region 12 33323232
Darwin 12 33223233
Townsville 12 33233232
Learmonth 13 32233333
Alice Springs 10 32223232
Culgoora 12 33323232
Gingin 13 33323332
Camden 12 33323232
Canberra 9 32322231
Launceston 15 33423333
Hobart 13 33423232
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 02 Jan :
Macquarie Island 24 34345442
Casey 39 56633353
Mawson 31 45534453
Davis 39 35644463
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 Jan :
Darwin 23 (Quiet to unsettled)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 55 (Unsettled)
Canberra 31 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 19
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 15 1113 5433
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
03 Jan 10 Unsettled to Active
04 Jan 7 Quiet to Unsettled
05 Jan 7 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity varied from quiet to minor storm
levels today. Geomagnetic activity is expected to gradually decline
from active to unsettled and then to quiet levels over the next
three days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Jan Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began 29 12 2013 1905UT and is in progress
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Jan Normal Normal Normal
04 Jan Normal Normal Normal
05 Jan Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed over the last
24 hours. Periods of sporadic E were also observed. HF conditions
are expected to gradually improve over the next 3 days as the
geomagnetic activity is expected to gradually decline over this
period.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
02 Jan 88
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec 130
Jan 73
Feb 71
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
03 Jan 120 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
04 Jan 130 Near to 20% above predicted monthly values
05 Jan 130 Near to 20% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed over the last
24 hours in the Aus/NZ region. Periods of sporadic E were also
observed. HF conditions are expected to gradually improve over
the next 3 days as the geomagnetic activity is expected to gradually
decline over this period.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 01 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.50E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Jan
Speed: 416 km/sec Density: 4.9 p/cc Temp: 103000 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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