[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 14 February 14 issued 2330 UT on 14 Feb 2014
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Feb 15 10:30:37 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/14 FEBRUARY 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 15 FEBRUARY - 17 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Feb: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M2/-- 0257UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Feb: 167/121
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
15 Feb 16 Feb 17 Feb
Activity Moderate Moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 165/119 160/114 160/114
COMMENT: Solar activity has been Moderate over the last 24 hours,
with 3 M class X-ray flares from active region 1974 (S12W40),
the largest of which was an M2.3 at 14/0257UT. No significant
Earthward-directed CMEs were observed over the period. The CMEs
from 11-12-Feb are expected to arrive early on 15-Feb, with an
associated solar wind shock, a solar wind speed increase, and
significant fluctuations of the IMF. AR1974 remains an Fkc /
beta-gamma-delta classified spot region. There is likely to be
further flaring from this region over the next 24-48 hours. Solar
activity is expected to be at Moderate levels (M-class flares)
with a slight chance of X-class flaring. The solar wind speed
remains near 300km/s at the time of reporting. The IMF remains
stable.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Feb: Quiet
Estimated Indices 14 Feb : A K
Australian Region 4 11222111
Cocos Island 3 11212100
Darwin 5 11222112
Townsville 4 11222111
Learmonth 4 20222102
Alice Springs 4 10222112
Norfolk Island 4 12111112
Culgoora 4 10222111
Gingin 3 11211101
Camden 3 01221111
Canberra 2 00221101
Launceston 4 11221111
Hobart 3 11211101
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 14 Feb :
Macquarie Island 0 00100000
Casey 6 22322011
Mawson 3 11121101
Davis - --------
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 Feb :
Darwin 4 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 15 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 9
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 2 1000 1011
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
15 Feb 36 Minor Storm
16 Feb 20 Active
17 Feb 12 Unsettled
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 3 was issued on 12 February
and is current for 13-15 Feb. The geomagnetic field was Quiet
over the last 24 hours. A series of CMEs that erupted on 11-12
Feb are expected to arrive early on 15-Feb, producing Active
to Minor Storm conditions 15-16 Feb, with the possibility of
Major Storm periods at high latitudes.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Feb Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Feb Fair Fair-poor Poor
16 Feb Normal Normal-fair Fair
17 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
14 Feb 137
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Enhanced by 40% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jan 119
Feb 75
Mar 75
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
15 Feb 130 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
16 Feb 90 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 20 to
30%
17 Feb 100 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS Preliminary HF Communications Warning 8 was issued
on 13 February and is current for 15-17 Feb. IPS SWF HF Communications
Warning 9 was issued on 14 February and is current for 15-16
Feb. The ionosphere in the Australian region was mostly normal
to enhanced over the last 24 hours. MUFs were generally above
predicted monthly values at most locations. MUFs are expected
to continue to be enhanced 15-Feb, however an expected increase
in geomagnetic activity may result in degraded HF conditions
15-Feb and some MUF depressions to 30% on 16-Feb, particularly
at S.Aus/NZ/Antarctic locations. Further short-wave fadeouts
are likely over the next 2 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 13 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.60E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 9%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.8
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Feb
Speed: 367 km/sec Density: 1.1 p/cc Temp: 50200 K Bz: 5 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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