[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 13 February 14 issued 2330 UT on 13 Feb 2014

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Feb 14 10:30:36 EST 2014


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/13 FEBRUARY 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 14 FEBRUARY - 16 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** RED **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Feb:  High

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
 M1/--    0140UT  possible   lower  West Pacific

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Feb: 167/121


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             14 Feb             15 Feb             16 Feb
Activity     Moderate           Moderate           Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   165/119            165/119            160/114

COMMENT: Solar activity has been high over the last 24 hours, 
with 5 M class X-ray flares from active region 1974 (S07W28), 
the largest of which was an M1.8 at 13/0140UT. No significant 
Earthward-directed CMEs were observed over the period. Further 
modelling of the CMEs from 11-Feb and 12-Feb indicates an expected 
combined arrival early on 15-Feb. The CME arrival should be associated 
with a shock in the solar wind, a solar wind speed increase, 
and significant fluctuations of the IMF. AR1974 remains an Fkc 
/ beta-gamma-delta classified spot region and continues to exhibit 
growth. There is likely to be further flaring from this region 
over the next 24-48 hours. Solar activity is expected to be at 
Moderate levels (M-class flares) with a slight chance of X-class 
flaring. The solar wind speed declined over the period to near 
300km/s at the time of reporting. The IMF remains stable.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Feb: Quiet

Estimated Indices 13 Feb : A   K           
   Australian Region       2   11120001
      Cocos Island         1   11110000
      Darwin               2   20110002
      Townsville           2   11120011
      Learmonth            3   21220002
      Alice Springs        2   20120001
      Norfolk Island       1   10010011
      Culgoora             2   10120001
      Gingin               3   22220001
      Camden               2   10120001
      Canberra             2   10120001
      Launceston           2   11120011
      Hobart               2   10120001    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 13 Feb :
      Macquarie Island     0   00010000
      Casey                6   22331011
      Mawson               1   10110000
      Davis                -   --------

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 Feb : 
      Darwin               2   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Feb : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Feb :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              6   3211 1211     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
14 Feb     5    Quiet
15 Feb    40    Minor Storm
16 Feb    16    Active

COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 3 was issued on 12 February 
and is current for 13-15 Feb. The geomagnetic field was Quiet 
over the last 24 hours. Expect mostly Quiet conditions 14 Feb. 
A series of CMEs that erupted on 11-12 Feb are expected to arrive 
from early on 15-Feb, producing Minor Storm conditions 15-Feb, 
with the possibility of Major Storm periods, particularly at 
high latitudes.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
13 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
14 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal
15 Feb      Fair           Fair-poor      Poor
16 Feb      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair


-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
13 Feb   123

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available.
   Niue Island Region:
      No data available.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
      Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jan      119
Feb      75
Mar      75

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
14 Feb   130    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
15 Feb   130    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
16 Feb    90    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 20 to 
                30%

COMMENT: IPS SWF HF Communications Warning 7 was issued on 12 
February and is current for 13-14 Feb. IPS Preliminary HF Communications 
Warning 8 was issued on 13 February and is current for 15-17 
Feb. The ionosphere in the Australian region was mostly normal 
to enhanced over the last 24 hours. MUFs were generally above 
predicted monthly values at most locations. MUFs are expected 
to continue to be enhanced next two days. An expected increase 
in geomagnetic activity may result in some MUF depressions to 
30% on 16-Feb, particularly at S.Aus/NZ/Antarctic locations. 
Further short-wave fadeouts are likely over the next 2 days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 12 Feb
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.5E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.80E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: C1.5

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Feb
Speed: 446 km/sec  Density:    1.4 p/cc  Temp:    20800 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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