[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 12 February 14 issued 2351 UT on 12 Feb 2014
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Feb 13 10:51:23 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/12 FEBRUARY 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 13 FEBRUARY - 15 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Feb: High
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M3.7 0426UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
M1.0 0613UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
M1.0 0637UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
M2.3 0658UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
M2.1 1551UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Feb: 160/114
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
13 Feb 14 Feb 15 Feb
Activity Moderate Moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 155/109 150/105 150/105
COMMENT: Moderate levels of solar activity were observed over
the last 24 hours. Region 1974(S13W10) produced three M-class
flares over the period, the largest of which was an M3.7 at 12/0425UT
that produced a full halo CME, followed by an M2.3 at 12/0658UT,
and later an M2.1 at 12/1551UT. Analysis of the associated CMEs
from yesterday's flaring is ongoing however preliminary modelling
suggests an arrival of the first two (M3.7, M2.3) on 15-Feb.
Further imagery is required to analyse the third CME. AR1974
remains an Fac / beta-gamma-delta classified spot region and
continues to exhibit growth. There is likely to be further flaring
from this region over the next 24-48 hours. Solar activity is
expected to be at Moderate levels (M-class flares) with a slight
chance of X-class flaring. The solar wind speed remains marginally
elevated (above 400km/s) but is declining. The IMF remains stable.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Feb: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 12 Feb : A K
Australian Region 6 33111211
Cocos Island 4 32111110
Darwin 7 33111212
Townsville 8 33122222
Learmonth 9 43112212
Alice Springs 6 33111211
Norfolk Island 5 23111112
Culgoora - --------
Gingin 8 42211221
Camden 5 -3111211
Canberra 6 33111211
Launceston 10 43222311
Hobart 7 33211211
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 12 Feb :
Macquarie Island 5 33111200
Casey 14 44332222
Mawson 16 44212334
Davis - --------
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 Feb :
Darwin 4 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4 2110 0013
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
13 Feb 5 Quiet
14 Feb 5 Quiet
15 Feb 45 Minor Storm
COMMENT: The geomagnetic field has been Quiet to Unsettled over
the last 24 hours. Expect mostly Quiet conditions next two days
(13-14 Feb). A series of CMEs are expected to arrive from early
on 15-Feb, producing Minor Storm conditions 15-Feb, with the
possibility of Major Storm periods, particularly at high latitudes.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Feb Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Feb Normal Normal Normal
14 Feb Normal Normal Normal
15 Feb Fair Fair Poor
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
12 Feb 137
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jan 119
Feb 75
Mar 75
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
13 Feb 120 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
14 Feb 120 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
15 Feb 120 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS SWF HF Communications Warning 7 was issued on 12
February and is current for 13-14 Feb. The ionosphere in the
Australian region was mostly normal to enhanced over the last
24 hours. MUFs were generally above predicted monthly values
at most locations. MUFs are expected to continue to be enhanced
next three days. Further short-wave fadeouts are likely over
the next 2 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 11 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.90E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.3
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Feb
Speed: 450 km/sec Density: 2.3 p/cc Temp: 54400 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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