[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 11 February 14 issued 2330 UT on 11 Feb 2014
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Feb 12 10:30:35 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/11 FEBRUARY 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 12 FEBRUARY - 14 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Feb: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.7 0332UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
M1.8 1654UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Feb: 172/126
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
12 Feb 13 Feb 14 Feb
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 170/124 165/119 160/114
COMMENT: Moderate levels of solar activity were observed over
the last 24 hours. Region 1974(S13E04) produced one M1.7, an
M1.8 flares and a C8 flare. The M1.7 flare that peaked at 0331UT
has been associated with type II and type IV radio bursts and
a faint and slow CME that is expected to arrive late on 16 February.
The M1.8 flare peaked at 1651UT. Solar wind speed gradually decreased
from 520 km/s to 450 km/s and the Bz component of IMF mostly
varied between +/-5nT during this period. Low levels of solar
activity may be expected for the next three days with the possibility
of M level and low possibility X-level activity.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Feb: Quiet to unsettled
Estimated Indices 11 Feb : A K
Australian Region 4 12211112
Cocos Island 4 21211012
Darwin 4 12211112
Townsville 5 12211113
Learmonth 6 22212122
Alice Springs 4 12201112
Norfolk Island 3 01200022
Culgoora 3 1-------
Gingin 5 22211112
Camden 4 12211112
Canberra 3 12211002
Launceston 6 12312112
Hobart 5 12311102
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 11 Feb :
Macquarie Island 3 12200002
Casey 19 35532123
Mawson 15 33312135
Davis - --------
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 Feb :
Darwin 4 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 9 2111 1143
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
12 Feb 6 Quiet
13 Feb 4 Quiet
14 Feb 4 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet to unsettled levels of geomagnetic activity were
observed today. Mostly quiet conditions may be expected for the
next 3 days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Feb Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Feb Normal Normal Normal
13 Feb Normal Normal Normal
14 Feb Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: The ionosphere was mostly normal to enhanced over the
last 24 hours. MUFs were generally above predicted monthly values
at most locations. Mostly normal HF conditions may be expected
for the next 3 days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
11 Feb 108
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jan 119
Feb 75
Mar 75
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
12 Feb 110 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
13 Feb 110 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
14 Feb 110 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: The ionosphere in the Australian region was mostly normal
to enhanced over the last 24 hours. MUFs were generally above
predicted monthly values at most locations. Mostly normal HF
conditions may be expected in this region for the next 3 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 10 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.60E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Feb
Speed: 465 km/sec Density: 2.1 p/cc Temp: 72700 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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