[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 15 February 14 issued 2330 UT on 15 Feb 2014

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Feb 16 10:30:36 EST 2014


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/15 FEBRUARY 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 16 FEBRUARY - 18 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Feb:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Feb: 162/116


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             16 Feb             17 Feb             18 Feb
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   160/114            155/109            155/109

COMMENT: Solar activity has been Low over the last 24 hours, 
with no significant X-ray flares or CMEs over the period. Solar 
activity is expected to be at Low to Moderate levels with isolated 
M/X-class flares possible. A moderate shock was observed in the 
solar wind at 1235UT on 15 Feb, likely the arrival of combined 
CMEs from 11-12-Feb. The solar wind speed jumped to 450km/s with 
an associated increase in total magnetic field and plasma density. 
The increased magnetic field has been purely northward-directed 
since arrival of the CME limiting its impact on geomagnetic conditions.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Feb: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 15 Feb : A   K           
   Australian Region       8   21003333
      Cocos Island         6   12003232
      Darwin               8   21103233
      Townsville          10   21004333
      Learmonth           13   21105333
      Alice Springs        9   21004233
      Norfolk Island       6   21003232
      Culgoora             7   11003332
      Gingin               7   21003233
      Camden               8   11103333
      Canberra             7   11003323
      Launceston           8   11103333
      Hobart               6   11103322    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 15 Feb :
      Macquarie Island     4   11002321
      Casey               13   34314222
      Mawson               6   21104211
      Davis                -   --------

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 Feb : 
      Darwin               2   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             2   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Feb : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             14                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Feb :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              2   0000 1110     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
16 Feb    15    Unsettled to Active
17 Feb    12    Unsettled
18 Feb     8    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: The geomagnetic field was Quiet over the first half 
of the UT, until the arrival of a shock in the solar wind. An 
associated weak (13nT) impulse was observed in Australian region 
magnetometer data at 1318UT, after which geomagnetic conditions 
increased to mostly Unsettled with an isolated Active period 
12-15UT. Expect Unsettled to Active conditions at most locations 
16-Feb, with Minor Storm periods at high latitudes.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
15 Feb      Normal         Fair           Fair           

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
16 Feb      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair
17 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
18 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair


-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
15 Feb   135

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      No data available during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jan      119
Feb      75
Mar      75

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
16 Feb   100    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 20 to 
                30%
17 Feb   110    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
18 Feb   110    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values

COMMENT: IPS Preliminary HF Communications Warning 8 was issued 
on 13 February and is current for 15-17 Feb. IPS SWF HF Communications 
Warning 9 was issued on 14 February and is current for 15-16 
Feb. The ionosphere in the Australian region was enhanced over 
the past 24 hours. MUFs were generally above predicted monthly 
values, however some degraded HF conditions were observed at 
S.Aus locations overnight. MUFs are expected to be mostly near 
predicted monthly values 16-Feb, with some localised depressions 
to 30%, particularly at S.Aus/NZ/Antarctic locations. Further 
short-wave fadeouts are possible.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 14 Feb
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.5E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.80E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 7%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: C1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Feb
Speed: 343 km/sec  Density:    2.3 p/cc  Temp:    39000 K  Bz:   4 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
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