[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 04 February 14 issued 2330 UT on 04 Feb 2014
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Feb 5 10:30:20 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/04 FEBRUARY 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 05 FEBRUARY - 07 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Feb: High
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M5/-- 0400UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Feb: 188/141
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
05 Feb 06 Feb 07 Feb
Activity Moderate Moderate Moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 185/138 180/133 180/133
COMMENT: Solar activity is at Moderate levels with regions 1967(S13W23)
and 11968(N10W19) both producing M class flares, the greatest
an M5. Both regions have declined slightly in size and complexity
over the last 24 hours, but 1967 retains the potential to produce
further M class flares over the coming days. Several small CMEs
were observed in the south west, the first around 01UT, then
two closely space at 17UT and 20UT. These are all likely to have
been produced by region 1967 and may be mildly geoeffective sometime
on the 7th of February. More detailed analysis will be given
in tomorrows report when modelling of these events in available.
Solar wind conditions are ambient.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Feb: Quiet
Estimated Indices 04 Feb : A K
Australian Region 4 22111112
Cocos Island 2 12110110
Darwin 4 22111112
Townsville 5 22111122
Learmonth 4 22111112
Alice Springs 4 22111112
Norfolk Island 3 22110012
Culgoora 5 2211-1-2
Gingin 4 22111111
Camden - --------
Canberra 3 22111011
Launceston 5 22211122
Hobart 4 22211111
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 04 Feb :
Macquarie Island 1 11000001
Casey 20 36432222
Mawson 8 33222301
Davis - --------
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5 1211 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
05 Feb 5 Quiet
06 Feb 5 Quiet
07 Feb 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions are Quiet and are expected to remain
Quiet for the next 2 days. Some unsettled conditions may be experienced
on the 7th of February.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Feb Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Feb Normal Normal Normal
06 Feb Normal Normal Normal
07 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
04 Feb 142
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 35% during local day.
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Enhanced by 35% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jan 119
Feb 75
Mar 75
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
05 Feb 130 Near to 30% above predicted monthly values
06 Feb 130 Near to 30% above predicted monthly values
07 Feb 130 Near to 30% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Propagation conditions remain good with enhanced MUFs
observed across the Australian region. These conditions are expected
for the next 3 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 03 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.80E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.6
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Feb
Speed: 368 km/sec Density: 4.2 p/cc Temp: 57600 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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