[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 05 February 14 issued 2330 UT on 05 Feb 2014
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Feb 6 10:30:40 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/05 FEBRUARY 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 06 FEBRUARY - 08 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Feb: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.3 1621UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Feb: 194/146
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
06 Feb 07 Feb 08 Feb
Activity Moderate Moderate Moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 198/150 195/147 190/143
COMMENT: Solar activity remains Moderate with an M1 flare produced
by region 1967(S12W38) along with numerous C class flare from
this region and 1968. No significant CME were observed. Updating
yesterdays report with now available data and modelling the CME
observed at 20UT on the 4th is a backside event. The two front
side events observed around 01UT and 17UT are expected to arrive
at Earth late on the 7th or early on the 8th of Feb. Solar wind
conditions are ambient. A small coronal hole may elevate wind
speeds from the 7th of Feb in conjunction with the expected CME
impacts. Solar activity is likely to remain at Moderate levels
for the next few days with a small chance of X class flare activity.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Feb: Quiet
Estimated Indices 05 Feb : A K
Australian Region 5 22202112
Cocos Island 2 11102001
Darwin 4 12202112
Townsville 6 22202123
Learmonth 5 22202112
Alice Springs 5 22202022
Norfolk Island 3 11202012
Culgoora 4 ---02--2
Gingin 4 21212012
Camden - --------
Canberra 4 12202022
Launceston 6 22202123
Hobart 5 12202122
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 05 Feb :
Macquarie Island 2 11101011
Casey 14 44422032
Mawson 7 23102123
Davis - --------
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 Feb :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 3 1110 0111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
06 Feb 5 Quiet
07 Feb 10 Quiet to Unsettled
08 Feb 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions are Quiet and are expected to remain
Quiet for the next day. Some unsettled conditions with possible
isolated Active periods may be experienced on the 7th and 8th
of February.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Feb Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Feb Normal Normal Normal
07 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
08 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
05 Feb 146
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Enhanced by 35% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jan 119
Feb 75
Mar 75
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
06 Feb 140 Near to 30% above predicted monthly values
07 Feb 140 Near to 30% above predicted monthly values
08 Feb 140 Near to 30% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Propagation conditions remain good with enhanced MUFs
observed across the Australian region. These conditions are expected
for the next 3 days. Some disturbance and reduce MUFs may be
experience in southern regions on the 8th and 9th of Feb however
this disturbance, if it occurs, is expected to be minor.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 04 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C2.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Feb
Speed: 347 km/sec Density: 4.0 p/cc Temp: 50500 K Bz: 4 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of IPS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list