[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 03 February 14 issued 2330 UT on 03 Feb 2014
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Feb 4 10:30:20 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/03 FEBRUARY 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 04 FEBRUARY - 06 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Feb: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1/-- 02/2204UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Feb: 188/141
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
04 Feb 05 Feb 06 Feb
Activity Moderate Moderate Moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 185/138 185/138 180/133
COMMENT: Solar activity reduced to Low levels over the last 24
hours although numerous C class flares continue to be produced.
AR1967(S12W10) remains the most significant region and grew slightly
over the last 24 hours. AR1968 is declining though may still
produce flares. Solar wind conditions are ambient. A weak CME
was observed beginning around 08UT however it appears to be a
minor backside event. Solar activity is expected to be at Moderate
levels with continued M class flares and possible isolated X
class flares expected over the next few days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Feb: Quiet
Estimated Indices 03 Feb : A K
Australian Region 0 1000----
Cocos Island 0 1000----
Darwin 0 0000----
Townsville 1 2000----
Learmonth 0 1000----
Alice Springs 0 0000----
Norfolk Island 1 2000----
Culgoora 0 1000----
Gingin 0 0000----
Camden 0 1000----
Canberra 0 1000----
Launceston 0 1000----
Hobart 0 1000----
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 03 Feb :
Macquarie Island 0 0000----
Casey 0 0000----
Mawson 0 0000----
Davis - --------
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 3 1100 1021
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
04 Feb 5 Quiet
05 Feb 5 Quiet
06 Feb 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions are Quiet and no disturbances are
expected at this stage over the next 3 days. No magnetometer
data available from 12UT due to IT issues which should be resolved
shortly.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Feb Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Feb Normal Normal Normal
05 Feb Normal Normal Normal
06 Feb Normal Normal Normal
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
03 Feb 137
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jan 119
Feb 75
Mar 75
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
04 Feb 130 Near to 30% above predicted monthly values
05 Feb 130 Near to 30% above predicted monthly values
06 Feb 130 Near to 30% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Propagation conditions remain good with enhanced MUFs
observed across the Australian region. These conditions are expected
for the next 3 days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 02 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.70E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.8
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Feb
Speed: 379 km/sec Density: 2.0 p/cc Temp: 68900 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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