[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 02 February 14 issued 2330 UT on 02 Feb 2014
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Feb 3 10:30:17 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/02 FEBRUARY 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 03 FEBRUARY - 05 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Feb: High
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M2.6 0634UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
M2.2 0822UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
M4.4 0931UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
M1.3 1406UT possible lower South American/Atlantic
M1.0 1629UT possible lower South American/Atlantic
M3.1 1812UT possible lower East Pacific/North American
M1.1 2143UT possible lower East Pacific/North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Feb: 190/143
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
03 Feb 04 Feb 05 Feb
Activity Moderate to high Moderate Moderate
Fadeouts Probable Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 195/147 200/152 205/156
COMMENT: Elevated background x-ray flux continues. AR 11968 (N10
E05) was the source of the 0634 and 1629 UT M-class flares, AR
11967 (S12 E02) produced the other M flares. AR 11967 is stable
(Fkc) and maintains high flare potential. AR 11968 has increased
in length and spot count and is now classed as Fai. A filament
in close proximity to AR 11967 was observed in H-alpha to disappear
around 06-07 UT; this may have been associated with a weak CME
first observed at 0712 UT which is unlikely to impact Earth to
any large degree. A fast and strong far-side CME occurred at
0912 UT. Another CME at ~1940 UT appears to also have originated
from a similar location on the back side. Neither are likely
to be geo-effective. The forecast disturbance in the solar wind
has not occurred but there is still a chance for first half of
3 Feb. Wind speed remained below 425 km/s with nominal north-south
IMF.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Feb: Quiet
Estimated Indices 02 Feb : A K
Australian Region 4 22201112
Cocos Island 3 22211000
Darwin 5 22211112
Townsville 5 22201113
Learmonth 5 22211112
Alice Springs 4 22201012
Norfolk Island 3 12200012
Culgoora 4 2--01-12
Gingin 6 32310112
Camden 3 12201111
Canberra 3 12200111
Launceston 5 22301112
Hobart 4 12300111
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 02 Feb :
Macquarie Island 2 12200001
Casey 16 45422221
Mawson 13 34303233
Davis - --------
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 9
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 2 0000 0112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
03 Feb 12 Unsettled
04 Feb 8 Quiet to Unsettled
05 Feb 6 Quiet
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 2 was issued on 31 January and
is current for 2-3 Feb. At this stage the moderate magnetic disturbance
has not occurred. Still a chance for first half 3 Feb. If it
eventuates isolated active periods 3 Feb.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Feb Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
04 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
05 Feb Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
02 Feb 141
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced 20-35% 00, 07-20 UT. Near predicted
monthly values at other times.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced 15-30% 00-07, 12-20 UT, otherwise near
predicted monthly values at Darwin. Enhanced
20-35% at Townsville.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly 15-35% enhanced. Near predicted monthly
values 05-09 UT Christchurch, Hobart, Norfolk Is.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Mostly near predicted monthly values to 30% enhanced.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jan 119
Feb 75
Mar 75
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
03 Feb 135 Near to 30% above predicted monthly values
04 Feb 135 Near to 30% above predicted monthly values
05 Feb 135 Near to 30% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Expect good propagation conditions 3 Feb.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 01 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.4
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Feb
Speed: 333 km/sec Density: 2.6 p/cc Temp: 34500 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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