[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 01 February 14 issued 2330 UT on 01 Feb 2014

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Feb 2 10:30:19 EST 2014


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/01 FEBRUARY 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 02 FEBRUARY - 04 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Feb:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M1.0    0126UT  possible   lower  West Pacific
  M3.0    0724UT  possible   lower  Mid East/Indian

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Feb: 177/131


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             02 Feb             03 Feb             04 Feb
Activity     Moderate           Moderate           Moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   180/133            180/133            185/138

COMMENT: Background x-ray flux remains elevated. Regions 11967 
(S13 E11) and 11968 (N10 E14) have shown growth in interior spot 
count with AR 11967 the source of the M flares. There is still 
the chance of high solar activity. LASCO and STEREO images show 
a CME associated with the M1 flare from AR 11968 31/1542 UT with 
most of the mass directed north. On 1 Feb, two other CMEs were 
associated with C-class events from AR 11967 but do not appear 
to have major Earth directed components. A filament liftoff was 
observed in H-alpha images ~0130 UT from near the southwest limb 
with no associated CME. ACE observations show the solar wind 
undisturbed although there was a slight increase in activity 
from about 0530 UT. From then, the north-south IMF was mostly 
southward but only to -5 nT.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Feb: Quiet

Estimated Indices 01 Feb : A   K           
   Australian Region       4   11101222
      Cocos Island         2   11100102
      Darwin               5   21111222
      Townsville           6   11202223
      Learmonth            4   21111212
      Alice Springs        3   10101222
      Norfolk Island       2   -0001122
      Culgoora             1   -010----
      Gingin               3   11101212
      Camden               4   10112222
      Canberra             3   10101222
      Launceston           5   11112222
      Hobart               4   11102212    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 01 Feb :
      Macquarie Island     1   00001111
      Casey                9   13321223
      Mawson              12   22112235
      Davis                -   --------

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 Feb : 
      Darwin               2   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Feb : A 
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              4                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 31 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              0   0000 0000     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
02 Feb    18    Quiet to unsettled then unsettled to active with 
                isolated minor storm levels.
03 Feb    12    Quiet to unsettled with isolated active levels.
04 Feb     8    Quiet to unsettled.

COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 2 was issued on 31 January and 
is current for 2-3 Feb.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
01 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
02 Feb      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair
03 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
04 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: MUFs are likely to decrease on 2 and 3 Feb. Propagation 
conditions may also be degraded during this time as the ionosphere 
becomes disturbed.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
01 Feb   138

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
      Enhanced by 35% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jan      119
Feb      75
Mar      75

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
02 Feb   110    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
03 Feb   115    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
04 Feb   125    Near to 30% above predicted monthly values

COMMENT: IPS SWF HF Communications Warning 6 was issued on 30 
January and is current for 31 Jan to 2 Feb. On 2 and 3 Feb ionospheric 
propagation support is expected to be good although MUFs are 
likely to be lower than last few days. Degradations in conditions 
may occur due to sporadic E and spread F.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 31 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.3E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: C1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 31 Jan
Speed: 344 km/sec  Density:    1.3 p/cc  Temp:    22200 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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