[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 31 January 14 issued 2330 UT on 31 Jan 2014

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Feb 1 10:30:21 EST 2014


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/31 JANUARY 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 31 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 01 FEBRUARY - 03 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 31 Jan:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
 M1/--    1542UT  possible   lower  South American/Atlantic

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 31 Jan: 166/120


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             01 Feb             02 Feb             03 Feb
Activity     Moderate           Moderate           Moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   170/124            175/129            175/129

COMMENT: Background x-ray flux remains elevated. AR 11968 (N10 
E29) produced the only significant flare. This region appears 
stable. AR 11967 (S13 E30) showed emerging interior spots. Chance 
of high M or an X-class flare. Two minor CMEs but neither Earth 
directed. ACE observations show the solar wind undisturbed. There 
is a southern hemisphere coronal hole with leading edge at 20 
degrees west which is likely to increase wind speed moderately 
late 2 or 3 Feb although its effect may be masked by the CME 
event that is expected to arrive at Earth on 2 Feb.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 31 Jan: Quiet

Estimated Indices 31 Jan : A   K           
   Australian Region       1   11110001
      Cocos Island         1   11100000
      Darwin               2   11110012
      Townsville           3   11110022
      Learmonth            2   10111002
      Alice Springs        1   11110001
      Norfolk Island       2   11100012
      Culgoora             6   111-3---
      Gingin               1   11010001
      Camden               2   11110011
      Canberra             1   10110000
      Launceston           2   -1210001
      Hobart               2   01210001    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 31 Jan :
      Macquarie Island     0   00000000
      Casey               10   34431000
      Mawson               3   21111102
      Davis                -   --------

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 31 Jan : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 31 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              3                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              4   2200 1211     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
01 Feb     8    Quiet to Unsettled
02 Feb    18    Quiet to Active. Isolated minor storm levels.
03 Feb    12    Quiet to active

COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 2 was issued on 31 January and 
is current for 2-3 Feb. Increase in activity due to CME effects.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
31 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
01 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
02 Feb      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair
03 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: MUFs are likely to decrease on 2 and 3 Feb. Propagation 
conditions may also be degraded during this time as the ionosphere 
becomes disturbed.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
31 Jan   135

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Dec      130
Jan      73
Feb      71

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
01 Feb   120    Near to 25% above predicted monthly values
02 Feb   100    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
03 Feb   115    Near to 25% above predicted monthly values

COMMENT: IPS SWF HF Communications Warning 6 was issued on 30 
January and is current for 31 Jan to 2 Feb. Ionospheric propagation 
support is expected to be good with near normal to enhanced frequencies 
1 Feb.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 30 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   9.0E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: C1.2

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 Jan
Speed: 367 km/sec  Density:    0.3 p/cc  Temp:    33200 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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