[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 28 December 14 issued 2330 UT on 28 Dec 2014

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Dec 29 10:30:32 EST 2014


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/28 DECEMBER 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 29 DECEMBER - 31 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Dec:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Dec: 133/87


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             29 Dec             30 Dec             31 Dec
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   130/84             130/84             125/78

COMMENT: Solar activity was low over the UT day 28 Dec, with 
only minor C-class flares from region 2248(S19E07). Two new regions 
2251(S12E52) and 2252(S20E63) were numbered today. There are 
currently 7 numbered regions on the visible disk with regions 
2248 and 2249(S10W65) showed further growth while other regions 
are relatively stable. Expect Low solar activity with a chance 
for an M-class flare over the next three days. Available LASCO 
C2 imagery does not indicate any significant CME. Solar wind 
speed was relatively steady at about 400 km/s over the UT day. 
The IMF Bz component fluctuated +/-5nT with mildly negative (-9nT) 
late in the UT day. Expect the solar wind speed to remain light 
over the the next 24 hours.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Dec: Mostly Quiet 
with one isolated Unsettled to Active period.

Estimated Indices 28 Dec : A   K           
   Australian Region       8   21211242
      Cocos Island         5   11111232
      Darwin               9   21222242
      Townsville           8   21221242
      Learmonth            8   21121242
      Alice Springs        7   11111242
      Norfolk Island       4   10111132
      Culgoora             -   --------
      Gingin              10   22222243
      Camden               6   21211232
      Canberra             3   10100132
      Hobart               7   11211242    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 28 Dec :
      Macquarie Island     7   11111242
      Casey               23   34543343
      Mawson              15   33323343

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 Dec : 
      Darwin               6   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               2   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Dec : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Dec :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5   3121 2101     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
29 Dec    10    Quiet to Unsettled
30 Dec     8    Quiet to Unsettled
31 Dec     8    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were mostly Quiet. Sustained 
negative IMF Bz component late UT day resulted in one isolated 
Unsettled to Active period ~2100 UT. Conditions are expected 
to be mostly Quiet 29-31 Dec with possible isolated Unsettled 
intervals should any Bz southward excursions occur.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
28 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
29 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal
30 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal
31 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Normal HF radio propagation conditions are expected 
for the next 3 days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
28 Dec   126

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Nov      113
Dec      87
Jan      87

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
29 Dec   110    Near predicted monthly values
30 Dec   110    Near predicted monthly values
31 Dec   110    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs were near predicted to enhanced over the UT day 
28 Dec. Near monthly predicted MUFs to slightly enhanced values 
are expected 29-31 Dec.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 27 Dec
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.4E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.90E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B5.2

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 Dec
Speed: 440 km/sec  Density:    4.0 p/cc  Temp:   128000 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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