[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 27 December 14 issued 2330 UT on 27 Dec 2014

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Dec 28 10:30:30 EST 2014


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/27 DECEMBER 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 28 DECEMBER - 30 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Dec:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M2.2    0217UT  possible   lower  E. Asia/Aust.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Dec: 134/88


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             28 Dec             29 Dec             30 Dec
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   135/89             135/89             135/89

COMMENT: Solar activity was Moderate for the UT day, 27 December, 
with an M2 flare and one minor C-class flare occurring from active 
region 2249((S10W61). Available LASCO C2 imagery does not indicate 
any significant CME. Solar background X-ray flux has declined 
to nominal levels. There are currently 5 numbered regions on 
the visible disk with regions 2248((S17E27) and 2249 undergone 
some growth over the last 24 hours while the other regions are 
either stable or in declining. Expect Low to Moderate solar activity 
over the next three days. The Bz component of the Interplanetary 
Magnetic Field trended from mildly negative (-9nT) early in the 
UT day to neutral late in the day. Solar wind speed remained 
near 550 km/s until about 0500UT after which it decreased steadily 
to 400km/s at the time of report issue. Expect the solar wind 
speed to remain near this level (400km/s) or slightly below over 
the the next 3 days.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Dec: Quiet with isolated 
Unsettled periods.

Estimated Indices 27 Dec : A   K           
   Australian Region       5   22212111
      Cocos Island         3   22121000
      Darwin               5   22222111
      Townsville           6   32212111
      Learmonth            5   32222100
      Alice Springs        4   22212101
      Norfolk Island       4   22212011
      Culgoora             7   2-------
      Gingin               6   32222110
      Camden               6   23212111
      Canberra             3   22201000
      Hobart               5   23212100    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 27 Dec :
      Macquarie Island     6   22322110
      Casey               25   56433222
      Mawson              18   53333233

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 Dec : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin              24   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Dec : A 
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary             11                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Dec :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        15
           Planetary             15   3422 2253     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
28 Dec     8    Quiet to Unsettled
29 Dec     8    Quiet to Unsettled
30 Dec     8    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were Quiet with isolated cases 
of Unsettled conditions across the Australian region during the 
UT day, 27 December. Antarctic region ranged from Quiet to Minor 
Storm. Expect these conditions to prevail over the next three 
days.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
27 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
28 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal
29 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal
30 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Normal HF radio propagation conditions are expected 
for the next 3 days. There is the chance of short-wave fadeouts 
over the forecast period.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
27 Dec   109

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Nov      113
Dec      87
Jan      87

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
28 Dec   100    Near predicted monthly values
29 Dec   100    Near predicted monthly values
30 Dec   100    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs were near predicted monthly values over the UT 
day 27 Dec. Good conditions for HF radio propagation are expected 
for the next 3 days. There is the chance of short-wave fadeouts 
over the forecast period.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 26 Dec
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   8.5E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.10E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B6.9

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 Dec
Speed: 451 km/sec  Density:    4.2 p/cc  Temp:   120000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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