[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 29 December 14 issued 2331 UT on 29 Dec 2014
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Dec 30 10:31:19 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/29 DECEMBER 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 30 DECEMBER - 01 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 Dec: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 Dec: 132/86
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
30 Dec 31 Dec 01 Jan
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 130/84 130/84 125/78
COMMENT: Solar activity has been low over the last 24 hours.
Three small C-class flares were observed today, the largest being
a C2 flare at 1052UT from region 2250(N08W68). Solar wind speed
showed a gradual increase from 450 km/s to around 600 km/s during
the UT day today. The Bz component of IMF showed small fluctuations
(+/- 6 nT) until 1400 UT and then showed larger fluctuations
(+/-10 nT) until the time of this report (2330UT). Solar activity
is expected to stay at low levels for the next three days with
some possibility of isolated M-class event. Solar wind stream
is expected to stay strong due to the effect of the coronal hole
on 30 December and then gradually weaken on 31 December.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 Dec: Quiet to Minor
Storm
Estimated Indices 29 Dec : A K
Australian Region 19 13234534
Cocos Island 13 12233433
Darwin 22 23234535
Townsville 21 23244534
Learmonth 21 12234535
Alice Springs 24 13235535
Norfolk Island 17 13234434
Culgoora 23 13245534
Gingin 28 22235635
Camden 26 13245535
Canberra 18 12234534
Hobart 25 23345534
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 29 Dec :
Macquarie Island 34 23256643
Casey 41 46644435
Mawson 42 45553546
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 Dec :
Darwin 47 (Unsettled)
Townsville 2 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 80 (Active)
Canberra 58 (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8 1211 1142
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
30 Dec 10 Unsettled to Active
31 Dec 8 Quiet to Unsettled
01 Jan 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions reached up to minor storm levels
today due to the effect of a high speed solar wind stream from
a coronal hole. This effect is expected to continue and possibly
gradually weaken over the next 48 hours. Geomagnetic activity
may remain high up to Active levels on 30 December and then gradually
decline to Unsettled and then to Quiet levels by late hours on
31 December.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Dec Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Dec Normal Normal Normal
31 Dec Normal Normal Normal
01 Jan Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: MUFs were near predicted to enhanced over the UT day
29 December. Near monthly predicted MUFs are expected on 30 and
31 December. Minor to mild MUF enhancements may be expected on
01 January 2015.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
29 Dec 104
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day.
Enhanced by 55% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov 113
Dec 87
Jan 87
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
30 Dec 105 Near predicted monthly values
31 Dec 110 Near predicted monthly values
01 Jan 115 Near predicted monthly values to enhanced 5 to 15%
COMMENT: MUFs were near predicted to enhanced over the UT day
29 December. Near monthly predicted MUFs are expected on 30 and
31 December. Minor to mild MUF enhancements may be expected on
01 January 2015.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 28 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.3
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Dec
Speed: 384 km/sec Density: 8.3 p/cc Temp: 63700 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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