[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 12 December 14 issued 2330 UT on 12 Dec 2014
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Dec 13 10:30:29 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/12 DECEMBER 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 13 DECEMBER - 15 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Dec: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Dec: 154/109
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
13 Dec 14 Dec 15 Dec
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 160/114 165/119 170/124
COMMENT: Solar activity was low over the last 24 hours, with
C-class flares from regions 2230 (S14W12), 2235 (S08E41) and
2234 (N04W08). The largest event was a C4 from region 2234, peaking
at 12/1439 UT. A spectacular filament lift-off from the northern
hemisphere in the early UT hours is unlikely to be geoeffective.
Low activity is expected for the next 3 days. The solar wind
speed rose to around 600 km/s. The IMF Bz component varied between
-11 and +7 nT.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Dec: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 12 Dec : A K
Australian Region 13 32334232
Cocos Island 11 32234221
Darwin 14 32334233
Townsville 14 32334233
Learmonth 15 32334333
Alice Springs 12 22334223
Norfolk Island 12 32324232
Culgoora 12 22334232
Gingin 15 32334333
Camden 13 32334232
Canberra 11 22334222
Hobart 18 23435233
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 12 Dec :
Macquarie Island 38 33665532
Casey 34 56544333
Mawson 33 54445354
Davis 37 44654354
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 Dec :
Darwin 23 (Quiet to unsettled)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth NA
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 6 (Quiet)
Canberra 11 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 19
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 3 1010 1112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
13 Dec 18 Unsettled to Active
14 Dec 12 Unsettled
15 Dec 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were mostly quiet to unsettled
across the Australian region for the last 24 hours, with a brief
active period 12-15 UT, reaching minor storm levels in the south.
Active to storm level conditions were observed in the Antarctic
for much 12-Dec. Conditions are expected to become slightly more
settled on 13-Dec, though isolated active periods might recur
in the Australian region, especially in the south. Gradually
returning to quieter conditions by 15-Dec.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Dec Normal Normal-fair Fair
14 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
15 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mid-high latitude disturbances likely on 13-Dec.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
12 Dec 129
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
No data available during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov 113
Dec 87
Jan 87
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
13 Dec 70 Near predicted monthly values to 15% depressed.
14 Dec 85 Near predicted monthly values
15 Dec 85 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly values across
the Australian region with localised minor enhancements. Sporadic
E currently being observed in the NSW region. Mild depressions
likely on 13-Dec in the mid to southern Australian regions, returning
to near predicted MUFs 14-15 Dec.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 11 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:13%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B7.2
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Dec
Speed: 407 km/sec Density: 7.6 p/cc Temp: 61300 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of IPS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list