[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 11 December 14 issued 2333 UT on 11 Dec 2014
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Dec 12 10:33:37 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT CORRECTION
ISSUED AT 2330UT/11 DECEMBER 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 12 DECEMBER - 14 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Dec: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Dec: 148/102
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
12 Dec 13 Dec 14 Dec
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 155/109 160/114 165/119
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the last 24 hours. The largest
flare was a C3.8 from active region 2234(N04E02) at 11/0856UT.
Solar activity is expected to be Low for the next 3 days. The
solar wind speed ranged from around 480 km/s to 380 km/s over
the last 24 hours. IMF Bz varied between +6/-4 nT. A solar sector
boundary change has just occurred, expect an associated increase
in solar wind speed to around 500 km/s and prolonged periods
with a slightly negative IMF Bz component. On 13 December expect
the solar wind to increase to just over 600 km/s due to a coronal
hole moving into a geoeffective location on the solar disc.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Dec: Quiet
Estimated Indices 11 Dec : A K
Australian Region 3 11100122
Cocos Island 3 11110122
Darwin 6 21211123
Townsville 5 21211122
Learmonth 4 12110122
Alice Springs 3 20100122
Norfolk Island 2 10100122
Culgoora 2 10100122
Gingin 2 11000122
Camden 4 2-110122
Canberra 2 10000022
Hobart 3 21100122
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 11 Dec :
Macquarie Island 1 10000021
Casey 10 33321223
Mawson 9 32212233
Davis 10 33322222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 Dec :
Darwin 15 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth NA
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 6 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 5 2112 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
12 Dec 12 Unsettled
13 Dec 18 Active
14 Dec 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Quiet magnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region during the UT day, 11 December. Today, 12 December, expect
mostly Quiet to Unsettled conditions with isolated periods of
Active levels at higher latitudes. On 13 December expect a slight
increase in activity with possible isolated cases of Minor Storm
periods at higher latitudes. Followed by a gradual return to
Quiet levels on 14 December.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Dec Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
13 Dec Normal Normal-fair Fair
14 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: High latitude disturbances likely on 13-Dec.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
11 Dec 121
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov 113
Dec 87
Jan 87
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
12 Dec 110 Near predicted monthly values
13 Dec 75 Depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
14 Dec 100 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly values across
the Australian region with daytime enhancements at Cocos Island
and some minor enhancements in the northern Australian region
during local night. Also observed isolated cases of sporadic
E in the NSW region. Expect similar conditions to prevail today,
12 December, however, on 13 December expect mild depressions
in the mid to southern Australian regions returning to near predicted
MUFs on 14 December.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 10 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.30E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 9%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B7.2
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Dec
Speed: 474 km/sec Density: 4.0 p/cc Temp: 95300 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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