[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 05 December 14 issued 2330 UT on 05 Dec 2014
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Dec 6 10:30:28 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/05 DECEMBER 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 06 DECEMBER - 08 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Dec: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1/-- 1225UT possible lower European
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Dec: 137/91
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
06 Dec 07 Dec 08 Dec
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 135/89 135/89 140/94
COMMENT: Solar activity was moderate with a number of C-class
flares, and an M1 level flare in Active Region 2222 (S23W41)
peaking at 1225UT. No solar imagery is yet available to indicate
if there was an associated CME. Activity in AR2222 declined significantly
following the M-level flare. A narrow W-directed CME was observed
in LASCO C2 imagery after 0630UT. Prior to this a weak Type II
radio sweep was observed on the Learmonth and Culgoora Radiospectrographs
at 0610UT with shock speed estimates 600 to 800 km/s. Solar imagery
now available indicates there was no CME associated with the
two M-level events observed on Dec 04. Solar wind parameters
remain moderately elevated under the influence of a coronal hole
wind stream. Solar wind velocity was relatively steady at around
450 km/s over the UT day. The IMF Bz component fluctuated +/-10nT
with some sustained negative periods during the first half of
the UT day.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Dec: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 05 Dec : A K
Australian Region 8 22233112
Cocos Island 6 121231--
Darwin 8 22233212
Townsville 9 23233122
Learmonth 10 22234212
Alice Springs 8 222330--
Norfolk Island 7 12133122
Culgoora 5 12------
Gingin 9 222331--
Camden - --------
Canberra 8 122331--
Launceston - --------
Hobart 10 22243212
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 05 Dec :
Macquarie Island 23 232642--
Casey 28 455431--
Mawson 15 334331--
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 Dec :
Darwin 32 (Quiet to unsettled)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 11 (Quiet)
Canberra 25 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 11
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8 2211 2323
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
06 Dec 12 Unsettled
07 Dec 10 Quiet to Unsettled
08 Dec 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: The regional geomagnetic field was Quiet at low to mid
latitudes with Unsettled conditions 09 to 15 UT. Unsettled to
Minor Storm conditions were observed at high latitudes. Due to
a large South Polar coronal hole with extension to mid solar
latitudes, the present coronal hole wind stream is expected to
persist for the forecast period, possibly intensifying slightly
days one and two. Expect Unsettled geomagnetic conditions at
low to mid latitudes with Active to Minor Storm periods at high
latitudes for the next two to three days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Dec Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
07 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
08 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: High latitude disturbances possible mainly days one
and two due to elevated geomagnetic activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
05 Dec 94
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov 113
Dec 87
Jan 87
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
06 Dec 90 Near predicted monthly values
07 Dec 90 Near predicted monthly values
08 Dec 90 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Ionospheric propagation conditions mostly near predicted
monthly values. Limited data and periods of localised disturbance
observed Antarctic region. Expect occasional periods of disturbance
S Aus/Antarctic regions next three days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 04 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.40E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B7.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Dec
Speed: 485 km/sec Density: 4.4 p/cc Temp: 112000 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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