[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 04 December 14 issued 2330 UT on 04 Dec 2014
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Dec 5 10:30:33 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/04 DECEMBER 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 05 DECEMBER - 07 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Dec: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1/-- 0810UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Dec: 158/112
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
05 Dec 06 Dec 07 Dec
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 150/105 150/105 145/99
COMMENT: Solar activity reached moderate levels on Dec 04 with
an M1.3 level flare from AR2222 (S20W26) peaking at 0810UT and
an M6.1 level flare also from AR2222 (S20W31) peaking at 1825UT.
Both flares were of relatively short duration (about 1 hour).
Available solar imagery does not indicate any significant CME,
although little imagery is currently available for the M6 event.
Region 2222 showed some decay over the latter part of the UT
day Dec 04, mainly in the trailing spot group. It maintains potential
for further C- to M-class flare activity. Solar wind parameters
remain elevated due to an extensive South Polar coronal hole.
Solar wind speed remained at 450 to 500 km/s over the UT day.
The IMF Bz component was mostly neutral, with a negative excursion
to -6nT late in the UT day. The current coronal hole wind stream
is expected to continue for the next few days, possibly intensifying
slightly days one and two.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Dec: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 04 Dec : A K
Australian Region 8 21113323
Cocos Island 5 21112222
Darwin 11 22213324
Townsville 9 21213323
Learmonth 8 21113323
Alice Springs 8 21113323
Norfolk Island 7 21112323
Culgoora 8 21113323
Gingin 10 31113333
Camden - --------
Canberra 9 22213323
Launceston - --------
Hobart 9 22213323
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 04 Dec :
Macquarie Island 11 12124413
Casey 25 44543334
Mawson 19 54323333
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 Dec :
Darwin 67 (Active)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 35 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 34 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 5 2101 1122
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
05 Dec 10 Quiet to Unsettled
06 Dec 12 Unsettled
07 Dec 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: The regional low to mid latitude geomagnetic field was
Quiet with Unsettled periods 12 to 18UT. At high latitudes conditions
were Unsettled with Active to Minor Storm intervals. The Earth
remains under the influence of a moderate coronal hole wind stream
which is expected to persist for the next few days. Expect Unsettled
periods days one and two and three, with possible brief Active
intervals day two.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Dec Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
06 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
07 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: High latitude disturbances possible mainly day two due
to elevated geomagnetic activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
04 Dec 111
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values to mildly enhanced.
Enhanced by 35% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values to mildly enhanced.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values with periods of disturbance.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov 113
Dec 87
Jan 87
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
05 Dec 100 Near predicted monthly values
06 Dec 100 Near predicted monthly values
07 Dec 100 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Ionospheric propagation conditions mostly near predicted
monthly values. Mild to moderate enhancements observed Equatorial/Aus
regions. Periods of localised disturbance Antarctic region. Expect
occasional periods of disturbance S Aus/Antarctic regions next
three days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 03 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.30E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B7.6
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Dec
Speed: 430 km/sec Density: 6.2 p/cc Temp: 98400 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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