[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 03 December 14 issued 2330 UT on 03 Dec 2014
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Dec 4 10:30:48 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/03 DECEMBER 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 04 DECEMBER - 06 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Dec: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Dec: 154/109
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
04 Dec 05 Dec 06 Dec
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 150/105 150/105 150/105
COMMENT: Several minor C-class flares were observed over the
UT day Dec 03, most originating in Active Region 2222 (S20W22).
This region maintains potential for further C- to M-class activity.
Solar background X-ray flux has declined to nominal levels. The
Earth remains under the influence of a slow coronal hole solar
wind stream which is expected to persist for several more days.
Solar wind speed was relatively steady at about 450 km/s over
the UT day. The Bz component of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field
trended from mildly negative (-5nT) early in the UT day to mildly
positive (+5nT) late in the day. The present South Polar coronal
hole has a northward extension now near central solar meridian.
This feature could produce further elevated solar wind parameters
later in the week.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Dec: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 03 Dec : A K
Australian Region 7 21132222
Cocos Island 5 21122121
Darwin 8 21232223
Townsville 9 22232223
Learmonth 7 21132222
Alice Springs 7 21132222
Norfolk Island 6 21132122
Culgoora 7 21132222
Gingin 7 21122232
Camden 7 21132222
Canberra 5 21122122
Launceston - --------
Hobart 5 22121122
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 03 Dec :
Macquarie Island 4 21011122
Casey 15 34332333
Mawson 16 43233342
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 Dec :
Darwin 52 (Unsettled)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 2 (Quiet)
Gingin 44 (Unsettled)
Canberra 24 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 8 2222 3222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
04 Dec 8 Quiet to Unsettled
05 Dec 10 Quiet to Unsettled
06 Dec 12 Unsettled
COMMENT: Regional low to mid latitude stations observed mostly
Quiet geomagnetic conditions with a briefly Unsettled period
09-12UT. Conditions at high latitudes were Unsettled with brief
Active intervals. The Earth is currently under the influence
of a slow coronal hole wind stream which is expected to persist
for the next few days. Further elevated geomagnetic conditions
are possible days two and three of the forecast period.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Dec Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
05 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
06 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
03 Dec 92
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Darwin depressed 25% local day,
depressed 15% before local dawn.
Townsville depressed 20% local night.
Brisbane depressed 15% local day.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day
with some periods of disturbance.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov 113
Dec 87
Jan 87
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
04 Dec 100 Near predicted monthly values
05 Dec 100 Near predicted monthly values
06 Dec 100 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Ionospheric propagation conditions mostly near predicted
monthly values. Considerable local variability observed Equatorial/N
Aus regions. Periods of localised disturbance Antarctic region.
Expect occasional periods of disturbance S Aus/Antarctic regions
next three days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 02 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.80E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Dec
Speed: 522 km/sec Density: 5.1 p/cc Temp: 142000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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