[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 29 August 14 issued 2332 UT on 29 Aug 2014
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Aug 30 09:32:13 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/29 AUGUST 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 30 AUGUST - 01 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 Aug: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 Aug: 120/72
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
30 Aug 31 Aug 01 Sep
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 120/72 120/72 125/78
COMMENT: Solar activity was low over the last 24 hours, the largest
event was a C4 flare from region 2146(located near the NW limb)
at 1552UT. Expect solar activity to be Low with a slight chance
of an M-class event over the next few days. Solar wind speeds
gradually increased from ~ 340 km/s to 450 km/s and Bz ranged
between +/-10nT with sustained weak southward periods. ACE satellite
data is suggestive that this is due to anticipated coronal hole
high speed stream. Solar wind speeds are expected to remain at
this levels for the next 24 hours under the influence of the
high speed stream.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 Aug: Quiet to Unsettled
with one isolated Active period.
Estimated Indices 29 Aug : A K
Australian Region 10 22242232
Cocos Island 7 22132221
Darwin 10 23232223
Townsville 12 33332223
Learmonth 7 22132122
Alice Springs 8 22232132
Norfolk Island 10 22342122
Culgoora 11 32242232
Gingin 9 22232232
Camden 11 22342232
Canberra 8 22241121
Launceston 15 23352232
Hobart 11 22342232
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 29 Aug :
Macquarie Island 18 14454221
Casey 14 34333132
Mawson 37 45533365
Davis 21 34------
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 Aug :
Darwin 14 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 10 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 14
Planetary 18
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 17
Planetary 25 3644 3332
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
30 Aug 14 Quiet to Unsettled with possible isolated Active
conditions.
31 Aug 10 Quiet to Unsettled.
01 Sep 7 Mostly Quiet.
COMMENT: The regional geomagnetic field was Quiet to Unsettled
during the UT day, 29 Aug. There was an isolated Active period
at some stations, most likely due to a minor dip in the Bz component
of the IMF. Expect activity to remain Quiet to Unsettled with
possible Active periods under the influence of high speed stream
day 1, 30 Aug. Geomagnetic activity should return to mostly Quiet
by day 3, 01 Sep in the absence of prolonged IMF Bz southwards
or CMEs.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Aug Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Aug Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
31 Aug Normal Normal Normal
01 Sep Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
29 Aug 62
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values to 15% depressed over
the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul 68
Aug 91
Sep 87
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
30 Aug 65 15 to 20% below predicted monthly values
31 Aug 75 Near predicted monthly values
01 Sep 75 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS Preliminary HF Communications Warning 44 was issued
on 29 August and is current for 29-30 Aug. MUFs were mostly near
predicted monthly values with some mild depressions of around
25% at times. Similar conditions are expected for the next 24
hours. Conditions should improve on 31 Aug-01 Sep although MUFs
are expected to remain slightly below those based on the predicted
monthly T index.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 28 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.40E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Aug
Speed: 350 km/sec Density: 3.2 p/cc Temp: 79100 K Bz: -5 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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