[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 30 August 14 issued 2343 UT on 30 Aug 2014

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Aug 31 09:43:55 EST 2014


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/30 AUGUST 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 31 AUGUST - 02 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: ** YELLOW **
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 Aug:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 Aug: 123/76


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             31 Aug             01 Sep             02 Sep
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   125/78             130/84             130/84

COMMENT: Minor flaring occurred from active regions 2149(N09W50) 
and 2152(S18E55). Regions appear mostly stable with 2149 in decline. 
Expect solar activity to be Low with a slight chance of an M-class 
event for the next 3 days. No Earth-directed CMEs observed in 
available SOHO/STEREO images on 30 Aug. Solar wind speed remained 
steady over the UT day at ~450km/s. The IMF Bz component ranged 
between +/-6nT with sustained weak southward periods. A small 
coronal hole may influence the solar wind stream on the 01-02 
Sep.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 Aug: Quiet to Active

Estimated Indices 30 Aug : A   K           
   Australian Region       9   22143122
      Cocos Island         4   22122110
      Darwin               9   23233122
      Townsville          10   23143122
      Learmonth            7   12133121
      Alice Springs        9   22143112
      Norfolk Island       8   23043011
      Culgoora            10   23143122
      Gingin               9   22143122
      Camden              11   22144122
      Canberra             6   22033011
      Launceston           9   231-4122
      Hobart              10   22144022    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 30 Aug :
      Macquarie Island    19   22265111
      Casey               12   33333222
      Mawson              26   44333264
      Davis                -   --------

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 Aug : 
      Darwin              27   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Townsville           2   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        2   (Quiet)
      Gingin               6   (Quiet)
      Canberra            16   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg        11
           Planetary             14                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        20
           Planetary             20   3445 2234     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
31 Aug    10    Quiet to Unsettled
01 Sep    14    Quiet to Active.
02 Sep    14    Quiet to Active.

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were Quiet to Active in the Australian 
region over the last 24 hours. Some Storm periods were observed 
in Antarctica. Conditions are expected to be Quiet to Unsettled 
with possible Active periods late on 01 Sep into 02 Sep, due 
to the effects of a coronal hole.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
30 Aug      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
31 Aug      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair
01 Sep      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair
02 Sep      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair


-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
30 Aug    66

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      No data available during local night.     
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values with occasional
      depressions to 20%.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jul      68
Aug      91
Sep      87

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
31 Aug    70    Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
01 Sep    60    15 to 20% below predicted monthly values
02 Sep    60    15 to 20% below predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs were depressed throughout the Australian region 
during nighttime hours of 30 Aug. Minor to mild MUF depressions 
may be observed on 01-02 Sep.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 29 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.8E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.80E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B3.5

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 Aug
Speed: 404 km/sec  Density:    6.2 p/cc  Temp:    84300 K  Bz:  -2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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