[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 30 August 14 issued 2343 UT on 30 Aug 2014
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Aug 31 09:43:55 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/30 AUGUST 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 31 AUGUST - 02 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 Aug: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 Aug: 123/76
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
31 Aug 01 Sep 02 Sep
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 125/78 130/84 130/84
COMMENT: Minor flaring occurred from active regions 2149(N09W50)
and 2152(S18E55). Regions appear mostly stable with 2149 in decline.
Expect solar activity to be Low with a slight chance of an M-class
event for the next 3 days. No Earth-directed CMEs observed in
available SOHO/STEREO images on 30 Aug. Solar wind speed remained
steady over the UT day at ~450km/s. The IMF Bz component ranged
between +/-6nT with sustained weak southward periods. A small
coronal hole may influence the solar wind stream on the 01-02
Sep.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 Aug: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 30 Aug : A K
Australian Region 9 22143122
Cocos Island 4 22122110
Darwin 9 23233122
Townsville 10 23143122
Learmonth 7 12133121
Alice Springs 9 22143112
Norfolk Island 8 23043011
Culgoora 10 23143122
Gingin 9 22143122
Camden 11 22144122
Canberra 6 22033011
Launceston 9 231-4122
Hobart 10 22144022
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 30 Aug :
Macquarie Island 19 22265111
Casey 12 33333222
Mawson 26 44333264
Davis - --------
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 Aug :
Darwin 27 (Quiet to unsettled)
Townsville 2 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 2 (Quiet)
Gingin 6 (Quiet)
Canberra 16 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 14
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 20
Planetary 20 3445 2234
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
31 Aug 10 Quiet to Unsettled
01 Sep 14 Quiet to Active.
02 Sep 14 Quiet to Active.
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were Quiet to Active in the Australian
region over the last 24 hours. Some Storm periods were observed
in Antarctica. Conditions are expected to be Quiet to Unsettled
with possible Active periods late on 01 Sep into 02 Sep, due
to the effects of a coronal hole.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Aug Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
31 Aug Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
01 Sep Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
02 Sep Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
30 Aug 66
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values with occasional
depressions to 20%.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul 68
Aug 91
Sep 87
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
31 Aug 70 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
01 Sep 60 15 to 20% below predicted monthly values
02 Sep 60 15 to 20% below predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs were depressed throughout the Australian region
during nighttime hours of 30 Aug. Minor to mild MUF depressions
may be observed on 01-02 Sep.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 29 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.80E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 Aug
Speed: 404 km/sec Density: 6.2 p/cc Temp: 84300 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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