[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 28 August 14 issued 2344 UT on 28 Aug 2014
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Aug 29 09:44:06 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/28 AUGUST 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 29 AUGUST - 31 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Aug: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Aug: 119/71
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
29 Aug 30 Aug 31 Aug
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 115/66 115/66 115/66
COMMENT: Most regions appear stable or in decline with AR2146(N07W72)
producing two low-level C flares and newly numbered Region 2152
(S18E62) a single C1 flare. ACE parameters show the solar wind
speed remained ~ 350 km/s. The north-south IMF range was +/-10
nT, mostly southward till 17 UT. Expect solar activity to be
Low with a slight chance of an M-class event. Elevated solar
wind speed from a coronal hole may take effect late today, 29
Aug.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Aug: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 28 Aug : A K
Australian Region 8 23222321
Cocos Island 7 23222221
Darwin 9 23222322
Townsville 9 23222322
Learmonth 8 23222321
Alice Springs 7 13222311
Norfolk Island 6 13222211
Culgoora 8 23222311
Gingin 11 23323322
Camden 9 23322311
Canberra 6 13221211
Launceston 13 24333322
Hobart 10 23332321
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 28 Aug :
Macquarie Island 23 25454411
Casey 10 33332212
Mawson 55 57633536
Davis 30 543-----
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 Aug :
Darwin 21 (Quiet to unsettled)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 16
Planetary 22
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 19
Planetary 21 1344 4444
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
29 Aug 14 Quiet to Unsettled with possible isolated Active
periods.
30 Aug 12 Quiet to Unsettled
31 Aug 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were Quiet to Unsettled levels
across the Australian region, tending to Quiet in the later part
of the UT day. Some Storm periods were observed in Antarctica.
Quiet conditions are expected to prevail for most of 29 Aug.
Unsettled with possible isolated Active conditions may accompany
the influence of a coronal hole high speed stream later today,
29 Aug into 30 Aug.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Aug Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Aug Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
30 Aug Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
31 Aug Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
28 Aug 51
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 35% during local day.
Depressed by 45% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul 68
Aug 91
Sep 87
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
29 Aug 60 15 to 20% below predicted monthly values
30 Aug 60 15 to 20% below predicted monthly values
31 Aug 75 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS SWF HF Communications Warning 43 was issued on 26
August and is current for 27-29 Aug. MUFs were depressed over
much of the Australian region over the last 24 hours. Mildly
depressed MUFs are likely for the next two days. There was nighttime
spread F observed at Hobart. With the significant decay of most
of the regions on the visible disk, the probability of sudden
ionospheric disturbance (SWF) is reduced.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 27 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.50E+04 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.2
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 Aug
Speed: 304 km/sec Density: 4.6 p/cc Temp: 42000 K Bz: -10 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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