[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 25 August 14 issued 2345 UT on 25 Aug 2014
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Aug 26 09:45:17 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/25 AUGUST 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 26 AUGUST - 28 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: ** YELLOW **
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Aug: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M2.0 1511UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
M3.9 2021UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Aug: 152/107
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
26 Aug 27 Aug 28 Aug
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 155/109 155/109 155/109
COMMENT: Several low level C-class flares along with two M_class
flares from Region 2146 (N09W46) at 1511UT and 2021UT. Regions
2146 and 2149 grew while the other regions were either stable
or in decay. There is the possibility of M-class flares over
the period. The limited SOHO images show a CME at ~1524 UT that
may be associated with the first(1511UT) M flare. A disappearing
filament was observed at ~0800UT in the northwest quadrant in
a geoeffective position if a coronal mass ejection resulted but
none has been observed in the SOHO spacecraft data. ACE data
show the solar wind undisturbed with speed ~ 260 km/s and the
north-south IMF ±4 nT. The solar wind is expected to become disturbed
during the next 24 hours due to the 22 Aug CME.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Aug: Quiet
Estimated Indices 25 Aug : A K
Australian Region 0 00000000
Cocos Island 0 01010000
Darwin 1 10100001
Townsville 2 10110012
Learmonth 1 11001000
Alice Springs 0 00000001
Norfolk Island 0 02000000
Culgoora - --------
Gingin 0 00000000
Camden 0 00100001
Canberra 0 00000000
Launceston 0 00100000
Hobart 0 00000000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 25 Aug :
Macquarie Island 3 1-------
Casey 2 12100100
Mawson 1 00000003
Davis - --------
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 Aug :
Darwin 23 (Quiet to unsettled)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5 1011 1212
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
26 Aug 16 Unsettled with isolated Active periods.
27 Aug 12 Unsettled
28 Aug 7 Quiet
COMMENT: Unsettled with isolated active periods today (26 Aug)
extending in to 27 Aug with arrival of CME.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Aug Normal-fair Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Aug Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
27 Aug Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
28 Aug Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Chance of Sudden Ionospheric Disturbances (SWFs) 26-28
Aug.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
25 Aug 74
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 40% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul 68
Aug 91
Sep 87
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
26 Aug 70 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
27 Aug 70 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
28 Aug 75 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS SWF HF Communications Warning 42 was issued on 24
August and is current for 25-26 Aug. Moderate MUF depressions
were observed in the North. MUF depressions are expected to continue
for the next few days, but should lessen as the level of ionising
solar radiation increases. Chance of sudden ionospheric disturbance
(SWF) for the next few days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 24 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B5.9
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 Aug
Speed: 279 km/sec Density: 3.1 p/cc Temp: 14100 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of IPS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list