[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 26 August 14 issued 2334 UT on 26 Aug 2014

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Aug 27 09:35:00 EST 2014


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/26 AUGUST 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 27 AUGUST - 29 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Aug:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Aug: 128/81


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             27 Aug             28 Aug             29 Aug
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   130/84             130/84             125/78

COMMENT: Solar activity was low over the last 24 hours, with 
several C-class flares from region 2146 (N07W50), the largest 
being a C5 at 26/2325 UT. The solar wind speed increased from 
~~250 km/s to ~300 km/s. The IMF BZ component varied between -4 
nT and +6 nT. Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate 
for the next 3 days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Aug: Quiet

Estimated Indices 26 Aug : A   K           
   Australian Region       2   11110012
      Cocos Island         1   11100011
      Darwin               3   12110112
      Townsville           3   11210112
      Learmonth            1   00110011
      Alice Springs        2   11100002
      Norfolk Island       1   11000001
      Culgoora             2   1-110012
      Gingin               0   00000001
      Camden               2   11110012
      Canberra             0   00000002
      Launceston           2   11011002
      Hobart               1   11010001    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 26 Aug :
      Macquarie Island     8   42421000
      Casey                2   12200001
      Mawson               1   11000002
      Davis                1   11111000

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 Aug : 
      Darwin              12   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             12                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              3   1001 1211     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
27 Aug    18    Unsettled to Active
28 Aug    12    Unsettled
29 Aug     7    Quiet

COMMENT: Magnetic conditions have been quiet over the last 24 
hours. Some active periods in the Australian region are possible 
on 27-Aug and unsettled periods on 28-Aug, due to CME and coronal 
hole effects. Mostly quiet conditions are expected on 29-Aug.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
26 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
27 Aug      Normal         Normal         Fair
28 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
29 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: There is a chance of short wave fadeouts over the next 
few days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
26 Aug    78

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 40% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jul      68
Aug      91
Sep      87

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
27 Aug    80    Near predicted monthly values
28 Aug    80    Near predicted monthly values
29 Aug    75    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: IPS SWF HF Communications Warning 43 was issued on 26 
August and is current for 27-29 Aug. Moderate MUF depressions 
were observed, mostly in the North. Similar conditions are likely 
over the next few days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 25 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.3E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.90E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B4.8

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 Aug
Speed: 259 km/sec  Density:    3.0 p/cc  Temp:    14800 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information.  The views expressed in 
this message are those of the individual sender, unless 
specifically stated to be the views of IPS.  If you are not 
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately 
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. 
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to 
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.





More information about the ips-dsgr mailing list