[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 24 August 14 issued 2330 UT on 24 Aug 2014

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Aug 25 09:30:21 EST 2014


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/24 AUGUST 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 25 AUGUST - 27 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Aug:  High

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M5.9    1218UT  possible   lower  European

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Aug: 141/95


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             25 Aug             26 Aug             27 Aug
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           None expected
10.7cm/SSN   135/89             135/89             135/89

COMMENT: A number of C-class flares from AR 12142 (N08 W76), 
12143 (S06 W79), 12146 (N08 W 30), 12149 (N12 E38) along with 
the M flare from innocuous AR 12151 (S07 E61). Regions appear 
stable with AR12148 (N07 W11) in decline. There was an impressive 
CME associated with the M flare with most material ejected to 
the south-east. However, an impact cannot be discounted. A filament 
was seen to lift off at ~1340 UT from the south-east quadrant 
in GONG images. ACE data show the solar wind undisturbed with 
speed less than 300 km/s and the north-south IMF +/-4 nT. The 
solar wind is expected to become disturbed around 25 Aug/12 UT 
due to the 22 Aug CME.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Aug: Quiet

Estimated Indices 24 Aug : A   K           
   Australian Region       1   11100000
      Cocos Island         1   01110000
      Darwin               1   11110001
      Townsville           2   12101011
      Learmonth            1   11100000
      Alice Springs        1   01100001
      Norfolk Island       0   11000000
      Culgoora             -   --------
      Gingin               0   01100000
      Camden               1   11101001
      Canberra             0   10000000
      Launceston           1   01111000
      Hobart               0   01010000    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 24 Aug :
      Macquarie Island     0   00010000
      Casey                1   12100000
      Mawson               2   22110000
      Davis                -   --------

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 Aug : 
      Darwin              14   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              6   1221 1221     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
25 Aug     8    Quiet to Unsettled
26 Aug    16    Quiet to Active
27 Aug    12    Unsettled to Active

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
24 Aug      Fair-normal    Fair-normal    Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
25 Aug      Fair-normal    Fair-normal    Fair-normal
26 Aug      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair
27 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Chance of Sudden Ionospheric Disturbances (SWFs) 25-26 
Aug.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
24 Aug    71

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Depressed 15-20% 01-02, 05-08, 22-23 UT. Depressed
      25-40% 14-21, 23 UT. Near predicted monthly values
      at other times.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed 15-20% with 30-40% depressions 09, 13-15
      UT. No data 18-22 UT.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed 20-35% 15-21 UT at Darwin. Depressed 20-30%
      04, 12, 14-20 UT at Townsville. Near predicted monthly
      values at other times.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values. Some depressions
      to 30% at Brisbane and Learmonth 14-18 UT. No Hobart
      data 05-21 UT.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jul      68
Aug      91
Sep      87

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
25 Aug    75    Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed.
26 Aug    70    Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed.
27 Aug    60    Near predicted monthly values to 25% depressed.

COMMENT: IPS SWF HF Communications Warning 42 was issued on 24 
August and is current for 25-26 Aug. Chance of sudden ionospheric 
disturbance (SWF) 25-26 Aug. Spread F observed at Brisbane, Canberra, 
Norfolk Is. and Sydney 11-20 UT. Improved HF conditions expected 
25 and 26 Aug due to increased solar flux.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 23 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.5E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.70E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B5.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Aug
Speed: 308 km/sec  Density:    3.6 p/cc  Temp:    30700 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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