[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 23 August 14 issued 2330 UT on 23 Aug 2014
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Aug 24 09:30:19 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/23 AUGUST 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 24 AUGUST - 26 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 Aug: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 Aug: 132/86
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
24 Aug 25 Aug 26 Aug
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low
Fadeouts Possible Possible None expected
10.7cm/SSN 140/94 140/94 140/94
COMMENT: A number of C-class flares from AR 12146 (N10 W18),
12148 (N08 E03) and 12149 (N10 E51) with the largest a C6.0 at
1727 UT from AR 12146. A new region at S08 E71. Regions 12146
and 12149 grew while the other six regions remained mostly stable.
No Earth-directed CMEs observed in SOHO/STEREO images on 23 Aug
although SDO images appear to show an eruption associated with
the C6.0 flare. The solar wind speed decreased from ~360 to 280
km/s and the north-south IMF range was +/-4 nT. SOHO images for
22 Aug show two minor CMEs associated with AR 12146 events. The
position of this region indicates likely impacts, probably on
26 Aug.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 Aug: Quiet
Estimated Indices 23 Aug : A K
Australian Region 2 11110101
Cocos Island 1 11110100
Darwin 2 11110102
Townsville 3 11110211
Learmonth 1 11110100
Alice Springs 1 01110101
Norfolk Island 2 12100111
Culgoora - --------
Gingin 2 11110110
Camden 2 11110101
Canberra 0 00000001
Launceston 1 11110100
Hobart 1 01110100
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 23 Aug :
Macquarie Island 0 00010000
Casey 3 22210000
Mawson 7 23221203
Davis - --------
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 Aug :
Darwin 27 (Quiet to unsettled)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5 2300 1112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
24 Aug 5 Quiet
25 Aug 8 Quiet to Unsettled
26 Aug 16 Quiet to Active
COMMENT: Disturbed periods possibly commencing around 12 UT on
26 Aug due to minor CME impacts. Level of disturbance will depend
on direction and duration of the north-south IMF.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Aug Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Aug Normal Normal Normal
25 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
26 Aug Normal Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: Chance of Sudden Ionospheric Disturbances (SWFs) 24-25
Aug.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
23 Aug 61
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed 20-40% 04-05, 07-09, 14-23 UT. Near
predicted monthly values at other times.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed 20-30% 02-12, 15, 23 UT. Near predicted
monthly values at other times.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed 20-35% 02-04, 09, 12-18, 21 UT at Darwin
and 03, 09, 11-17 UT at Townsville. Near predicted
monthly values at other times.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Some depressions to 20% 00-07 UT and 20-30%
10-20 UT. Near predicted monthly values at other
times.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values with occasional
depressions to 25%.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul 68
Aug 91
Sep 87
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
24 Aug 70 Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed.
25 Aug 70 Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed.
26 Aug 70 Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed.
COMMENT: IPS SWF HF Communications Warning 41 was issued on 21
August and is current for 22-24 Aug. Chance of sudden ionospheric
disturbance (SWF) 24-25 Aug. Spread F observed at Brisbane, Canberra,
Hobart, Sydney 09-20 UT and Norfolk Is. 13-18 UT.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 22 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B5.3
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 Aug
Speed: 347 km/sec Density: 3.8 p/cc Temp: 40300 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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