[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 21 August 14 issued 2330 UT on 21 Aug 2014
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Aug 22 09:30:25 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/21 AUGUST 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 22 AUGUST - 24 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Aug: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M3.4 1332UT possible lower European
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Aug: 128/81
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
22 Aug 23 Aug 24 Aug
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 135/89 140/94 150/105
COMMENT: Numerous C-class flares along with the M-class flare
from AR 12148 (N08 E29). Regions 12148 and 12143 (S07 W37) grew
while the other five regions are mostly stable or declining.
No CMEs observed in the limited SOHO/STEREO images available.
ACE data show the solar wind speed range 320-355 km/s with the
north-south IMF steadily southward to -7 nT.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Aug: Quiet to unsettled
Estimated Indices 21 Aug : A K
Australian Region 5 22222111
Cocos Island 3 22111100
Darwin 4 21122012
Townsville 6 22222122
Learmonth 5 22222111
Alice Springs 5 22122121
Norfolk Island 6 21232021
Culgoora 3 --1-----
Gingin 6 21232210
Camden 7 22232121
Canberra 6 22232111
Launceston 7 22232221
Hobart 7 22232121
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 21 Aug :
Macquarie Island 15 21445210
Casey 8 33222122
Mawson 33 65432354
Davis - --------
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 Aug :
Darwin 13 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 7 2111 2222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
22 Aug 7 Quiet to unsettled
23 Aug 5 Quiet
24 Aug 5 Quiet
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Aug Normal Normal Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Aug Normal Normal Normal
23 Aug Normal Normal Normal
24 Aug Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
21 Aug 71
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed 25-35% 03, 20-23 UT. Enhanced 25-50%
07-13 UT. Near predicted monthly values at
other times.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed 15-20% 01-15 UT. Near predicted
monthly values at other times.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed 20-30% 02, 11, 15, 18 UT, depressed
40-50% 12-14, 16 UT at Darwin. Depressed 25-40%
11-14 UT at Townsville. Near predicted monthly
values at other times.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values. Some
depressions to 20% 00-02, 11-15, 22-23 UT.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values to 30% depressed.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul 68
Aug 91
Sep 87
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
22 Aug 70 Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed.
23 Aug 65 Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed.
24 Aug 65 Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed.
COMMENT: IPS SWF HF Communications Warning 41 was issued on 21
August and is current for 22-24 Aug. Spread F observed at Hobart
12-20 UT, Perth 12-22 UT and Townsville 12-17 UT. Chance of sudden
ionospheric disturbance (SWF) 22-24 Aug.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 20 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.5E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.8
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 Aug
Speed: 358 km/sec Density: 4.4 p/cc Temp: 25600 K Bz: 11 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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